T theory update

I thought it was interesting that T is not real sure about a prolonged bull yet. May take a few wks to confirm. I had my doubts too. Download Latest T Theory Chart and Data Tuesday Nov 10th Comment: New T may have been formed unexpectedly because there are two possible Ts getting underway as noted in today's chart. The small T is the more conservative one because it is easier to cut the steeper cash build up line. The much longer cash build up line for the larger T is more difficult to develop as it implies a much more powerful advance and one that could get under way more quickly. I will speak to this issue on Sunday. In the meantime the first step is to confirm the presence of the smaller Ts with another burst of strength this week to at least get the S&P launched to break out above the mid Oct highs. Only new highs will actually confirm the continuation of the uptrend towards the final Advance-Decline T projection of a August 2010 high. If the bigger T has the real real power the S&P will break above the red upper envelop and turn the channel up in a steeper trajectory. If this happens it will take 2 to 3 weeks to be sure the big T is the third T of this bull market. If no T's are valid the market will start to slid over the next few days. Strength over the next few days will remove this concern.

New T may have been formed unexpectedly(?) because there are two possible Ts getting underway as noted in today's chart. The small T is the more conservative one because it is easier to cut the steeper cash build up line. The much longer cash build up line for the larger T is more difficult to develop as it implies a much more powerful advance and one that could get under way more quickly.

In the meantime the first step is to confirm the presence of the smaller Ts with another burst of strength this week to at least get the S&P launched to break out above the mid Oct highs. Only new highs will actually confirm the continuation of the uptrend towards the final Advance-Decline T projection of a August 2010 high. If the bigger T has the real real power the S&P will break above the red upper envelop and turn the channel up in a steeper trajectory. If this happens it will take 2 to 3 weeks to be sure the big T is the third T of this bull market. If no T's are valid the market will start to slid over the next few days. Strength over the next few days will remove this concern.

So...the market is teetering like a teeter-totter.

And people think Elliott is confusing!

I'm not discounting the method, mind you, but I do feel a bit befuddled.

Beat me up at your will...I probably deserve it anyway.

Fib

So...the market is teetering like a teeter-totter.

Fib, perhaps just like NYUD and NAUD, where they and their short and intermediate emas are coiled tighter Hurricaine Ida's eye was. There is a big move coming and NYSI has paused at the lower boundary of your support zone. The MCOs are snapping back to the zero line for NYMO and back just below zero for the secondaries, NAMO. Lots of things are teetering like a teeter-totter. Does the unwinding continue, or are we at a new launch point for an upmove? Of course, plan C is a continued high level consolidation...Any insight from your corner?

Echo

Terry is not very confusing to me, unlike e-wave is and is often wrong.

$nymo ma(20) at -40 oftens signals a low. It reached -39.45
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYM...id=p15624631720

My problem is calling a low after the SPX only went down for 2 wks even though other indicators are near oversold except for the weekly indicators. Major lows usually take a little longer unless it's a really strong bull market and not driven by the Fed's low interest policy or a weak dollar.

This bull move seems to be getting more mature with the small caps lagging.

Any insight from your corner?

Aside that we have minimally fulfilled the expectation of higher price highs given by the MCSUM a couple of weeks ago, and that many of the MCSUM's are attempting to find support just where initial support was expected, it's really up to the market's participants now on whether they want to extend the current bottoms above bottoms price structure into the end of the year or regroup for a December low.

The overall expectation from this juncture is for rapid rotation between sectors, but if we're able to move above the declining tops lines on the MCO's, then we will have the "escape velocity" needed to continue with the broad based rally of the last 8 months.

Patience...the market will tip its collective hand shortly.

Terry is not very confusing to me, unlike e-wave is and is often wrong.

Like I said, I'm not discounting the method, I just found it befuddling.

My problem is calling a low after the SPX only went down for 2 wks even though other indicators are near oversold except for the weekly indicators. Major lows usually take a little longer unless it's a really strong bull market and not driven by the Fed's low interest policy or a weak dollar.

It's all a matter of liquidity and the competition for this same money. In strong up trends, corrections can happen quite quickly, especially if everyone fights to get on the same of the trade during rest periods. So although a momentum to price retest would be nice to see, during times like this, we're probably not going to see it in a neat little box tied off with a bow either.

This bull move seems to be getting more mature with the small caps lagging.

Proper perspective suggests that something like this is only a first step of knowing when liquidity might be drying up. The real key to this is whether the secondaries/small caps actually confirm the directional movement of high caps that makes the real difference.

Just go with the flow until the flow reverses...keep it simple.

Theories are nice, but they are, after all, just supposition.

Good Trading

Fib

Market is making a year high. Retrace is minimum. BULL rules. TO THE MOON WE GO.

it's really up to the market's participants now on whether they want to extend the current bottoms above bottoms price structure into the end of the year or regroup for a December low.

Hi Fib. Good seeing you here. Befuddled as you may be over Terry's outlook, bottom line as I see it is that your projection is almost identical to his no matter how one gets there....

New T may have been formed unexpectedly(?) because there are two possible Ts getting underway as noted in today's chart. The small T is the more conservative one because it is easier to cut the steeper cash build up line. The much longer cash build up line for the larger T is more difficult to develop as it implies a much more powerful advance and one that could get under way more quickly.

In the meantime the first step is to confirm the presence of the smaller Ts with another burst of strength this week to at least get the S&P launched to break out above the mid Oct highs. Only new highs will actually confirm the continuation of the uptrend towards the final Advance-Decline T projection of a August 2010 high. If the bigger T has the real real power the S&P will break above the red upper envelop and turn the channel up in a steeper trajectory. If this happens it will take 2 to 3 weeks to be sure the big T is the third T of this bull market. If no T's are valid the market will start to slid over the next few days. Strength over the next few days will remove this concern.

So...the market is teetering like a teeter-totter.

And people think Elliott is confusing!

I'm not discounting the method, mind you, but I do feel a bit befuddled.

Beat me up at your will...I probably deserve it anyway.

Fib

T-theory is a simple theory. Terry's ramblings are confusing always. Again, those who approach any TA as holy grail are bound to be dissapointed. Like any other TA methodology, a lot of adjustments have to be made along the way as far as identifying the centerpost of the T. Once a centerpost is identified accurately, the time projections are uncanny !. I have watched it over 6 years. I see a lot of new T followers these days. They are bound to be dissapointed as Terry makes his adjustments. The irony is those would not have believed him when his projections were spot on, could start blindly beleiving in everything he says when he is bound to be wrong.

Price projections are not a strength of T-Theory. One of the best price projections tools i have ever seen is Hurst cycles. But the master of that art, airedale is no more.

Lastly, i have found T-Theory to be almost useless on timeframes lesser than daily. It's a IT to LT time projection tool. I don't know how Marty Schwartz used it for VST trading. Maybe he had his own bag of tricks.

it's really up to the market's participants now on whether they want to extend the current bottoms above bottoms price structure into the end of the year or regroup for a December low.

Hi Fib. Good seeing you here. Befuddled as you may be over Terry's outlook, bottom line as I see it is that your projection is almost identical to his no matter how one gets there....

fib_1618 wrote... "if we're able to move above the declining tops lines on the MCO's, then we will have the "escape velocity" needed to continue with the broad based rally of the last 8 months."

I fail to see how 'IF' is a projection???

it's really up to the market's participants now on whether they want to extend the current bottoms above bottoms price structure into the end of the year or regroup for a December low.

Hi Fib. Good seeing you here. Befuddled as you may be over Terry's outlook, bottom line as I see it is that your projection is almost identical to his no matter how one gets there....

fib_1618 wrote... "if we're able to move above the declining tops lines on the MCO's, then we will have the "escape velocity" needed to continue with the broad based rally of the last 8 months."

I fail to see how 'IF' is a projection???

Projection may be the wrong word. My point was and is that Terry is saying exactly the above. He is currently struggling over that very point - whether or not we are breaking through the declining tops downtrend line or not. Coming into the week he expected a top Monday/Tuesday as we hit that trendline. Monday's strength made him think we may be breaking through. Tonight he is backtracking to say that he just doesn't really know- just as Fib is saying. They are both at the "IF" stage with the same conclusion based on which "IF" occurs.