Follow the semis

The materials leadership is here to stay this is a late rally, but I would not sell this market short while RUT is holding up in such a day and the energy is retreating. Many large cap growth stocks are holding much higher too. The downside leader is the financials and they are holding up very well too. I see nothing bearish despite the intraday action... [more]

I think we have completed the last bit of the major cycle low for the lagging stocks and the leading stocks also had a nice pull back. I think we will resume higher a bit to 1120-1130 zone and consolidate later next week again, then I still expect a last ramp up into Thanksgiving before finishing this major swing higher. We should see only then where the market will be (after Thanksgiving).

If we see a close above 1100 by tomorrow, I expect around 1160-1180 by Thanksgiving, or another 60-80 points upside. So, we may still have one of the most impressive rallies since the March lows in points (not percentage) in the next 2 weeks in my opinion.

I stuck around to see how this market was going to hold up and convince a few more that a major swing is now playing out, but I do not seem to be very successful about this. Everyone made up their minds already and they are still pursuing the same thoughts. So, there is no benefit for me to argue anymore until we see how it plays out, so I am out until Thanksgiving...

Best of luck.

I stuck around to see how this market was going to hold up and convince a few more that a major swing is now playing out, but I do not seem to be very successful about this. Everyone made up their minds already and they are still pursuing the same thoughts. So, there is no benefit for me to argue anymore until we see how it plays out, so I am out until Thanksgiving...

Best of luck.

Do not try to convince anyone. Everyone have their own methods - right or wrong. Convincing others smacks of invincibility of our own methods. After decades of watching folks, there isn't holy grail in this business. Let's just share our methods and leave it there. Again, i always aprreciate you thoughts. Keep posting and sharing.

P.S - Still no sell signal on the SPX hourly.

Edited by NAV, 11 November 2009 - 12:37 PM.

The materials leadership is here to stay this is a late rally, but I would not sell this market short while RUT is holding up in such a day and the energy is retreating. Many large cap growth stocks are holding much higher too. The downside leader is the financials and they are holding up very well too. I see nothing bearish despite the intraday action... [more]

I think we have completed the last bit of the major cycle low for the lagging stocks and the leading stocks also had a nice pull back. I think we will resume higher a bit to 1120-1130 zone and consolidate later next week again, then I still expect a last ramp up into Thanksgiving before finishing this major swing higher. We should see only then where the market will be (after Thanksgiving).

If we see a close above 1100 by tomorrow, I expect around 1160-1180 by Thanksgiving, or another 60-80 points upside. So, we may still have one of the most impressive rallies since the March lows in points (not percentage) in the next 2 weeks in my opinion.

I stuck around to see how this market was going to hold up and convince a few more that a major swing is now playing out, but I do not seem to be very successful about this. Everyone made up their minds already and they are still pursuing the same thoughts. So, there is no benefit for me to argue anymore until we see how it plays out, so I am out until Thanksgiving...

Best of luck.

If ones are bearish, they are going to find the reasons to be bearish. But I think you are adapting to the market really well. I enjoy reading your posts. Personally, I would not consider short until one week after Thanksgiving.

My analysis is Dha Masta Jammas Bernanke and Geithner in the absense of huge treasury supply will be able to pump up the market into Late November. Pump me squeeze me make it happen BigB.

Thanks for the time invested Arb... Its appriciated! Do you have a blog, tweet? Pm it if so Thx again

And, you have a good bet too. The Thanksgiving period gets a pass and we float up. I have gone short after Jan 2010 to hedge my longs, but I suspect we still float upward on the liquidity. Did say gold? I should have mentioned I am buying more. Islander

Thanks for the time invested Arb... Its appriciated! Do you have a blog, tweet?

Pm it if so

Thx again

Thanks everyone, I take notes at this link time to time...

I don't pretend to know it all, I only say the odds favor up given the most recent major cycles and the amount of liquidity came to the rescue around 1040. A close below 1080 can still create risks to the downside, a close below 1040 by early next week may actually trigger a severe delta hedge failure. I do not think any of these will happen though.

We should be headed significantly higher.

Let's be honest here, if we go up, the upside is probably around 30-40 points for sure, if we go down it is probably limited to 1080 for now, but 1040 is potential low. Nothing else will happen in November, if we rally first, 1130 will be a solid resistance... If we drop the first sell off will be bought back up to some degree.

So far nothing looks like a big sell off here, there is some distribution for the past 2 days, but 1130 is the unfinished business, I will take most of the longs there (roughly 100 points) and then let it run as high as it goes... I am not planning to be long beyond the Friday of the Thanksgiving week...

The timing also works out similarly, I think a high around 1130-1140 is conservatively very reasonable and then we see the rest. It is all here. We are simply over thinking this one...

Good luck.

Edited by arbman, 11 November 2009 - 02:50 PM.