Bulls = Bears. evenly split

AAII:
(as of 11/11/2009) 50%
Bullish: 38.62%
Neutral: 22.76%
Bearish: 38.62%

(as of 11/4/2009) 29%
Bullish: 22.22%
Neutral: 22.22%
Bearish: 55.56%

Tickersense:



Sentimentrader.com:

Edited by Rogerdodger, 12 November 2009 - 09:01 AM.

S&P Price Oscillator Is Three Standard Deviations From Mean: 99% Outlier Market. When the Price Oscillator reaches an extreme, it often marks short-term exhaustion in buying or selling pressure.

Zero Hedge

last two poll numbers for AAII seem to show that very few members are actually participating.

Then let the games begin! Maybe an 1106 today followed by a visit to 1040s or a close over 1100 and we visit 1146 Mr. T didn't you have a T ending today?

The price oscillator can become extremely over bought only because you believe the normal distribution is the long run stable distribution for a market. The normal distribution is not the only distribution and is only an a hypothetical when applied. It can be inappropriate. Gamblers for example believe in a normal distribution because chance governs the distribution of a set of possible outcomes. In stock markets, that comparison can be inept. If the distribution is biased by exogenous events, like liquidity or expectations of liquidity, or other news events, the distribution changes and becomes skewed, the extremes are less meaningful or even misleading. The market price skews have become more common since March 2009, and in a rallying market are always net positive. We could have a ways to go like to the fall elections in 2010 - with only brief periods of normalcy. In this market extremes are the rule. Remember what Greenspan said, "When things change, I change my mind" (or something like that.) Anyway he became something else. Best, Islander

Mr. T didn't you have a T ending today?

There was an interesting coincidence which has reverberated several times.

From the March low to the July low = from the July low to yesterday!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYMO&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&i=p93903453373&a=30820282&r=6488.png