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Good place to put a long Dec ES

Started by arbman , Nov 12 2009 11:27 AM

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27 replies to this topic

#1 arbman

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Posted 12 November 2009 - 11:27 AM

Hourly is putting positive divergence now... The breadth is also the same from Tuesday's pull back. After the amazing pump on Monday, this sideways consolidation is about to end... The leadership is intact and we know that we are now swimming in oil...

This should be the last bit ahead of a move above 1100, which I predict will be tomorrow. But do not expect much more for next week, it is the expirations and the crowd is somewhat turning bullish.

So, any first rally to 1130 zone should also meet a lot of resistance, then when everybody's gone during the Thanksgiving low volume week... :lol:

Best of luck.

Edited by arbman, 12 November 2009 - 11:30 AM.

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#2 NAV

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Posted 12 November 2009 - 11:37 AM

Hourly putting divergences ? Can you show a chart or least mention what indicator you are seeing divergences on ? My Full Stoch is coming out of a overbought condition suggesting the move has just begun. MACD on 60 min has crossed over after a divergent top and has barely begun it's decent. Thrust indicators like CCI and RSI are showing momentum kickoffs. All indications point to a move that has just begun. The only thing that could save the bulls butt here is the trend. A crack below SPX 1087 and even that will change.

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#3 tommyt

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Posted 12 November 2009 - 11:46 AM

Hourly is putting positive divergence now...

I'd love to see your divergence, I see a different one:

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#4 arbman

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Posted 12 November 2009 - 11:53 AM

I am looking at the continuous ES, probably you are looking at the cash... (edit: nobody said that I will be right either, I put a stop @ 1082, we probably agree about that) BTW, cash is also oversold now, I would not want to place my short position had I been bearish. If there was a place to sell short for the pull back it was when we first poked above 1100... I think that trade is also almost over. Finally, after we got the 240 min as o/b as we did, the 60 min oversold is an automatic buy... imho.

Edited by arbman, 12 November 2009 - 12:00 PM.

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#5 tommyt

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Posted 12 November 2009 - 12:00 PM

BTW, cash is also oversold now. On what, I do see it on the 5 minute, but anything else? thought you were working off of the 60 min chart?

Edited by tommyt, 12 November 2009 - 12:00 PM.

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#6 arbman

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Posted 12 November 2009 - 12:01 PM

BTW, cash is also oversold now.

On what, I do see it on the 5 minute, but anything else? thought you were working off of the 60 min chart?

60 min is o/s in my measures.

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#7 arbman

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Posted 12 November 2009 - 12:03 PM

I expect a fake poke toward my stop honestly by the close. My stop is mental, if we fail to take the lows by the close from here, I will probably add into the close, tomorrow should gap up and nicely land over 1100 in that case.

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#8 tommyt

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Posted 12 November 2009 - 12:12 PM

BTW, cash is also oversold now.

On what, I do see it on the 5 minute, but anything else? thought you were working off of the 60 min chart?

60 min is o/s in my measures.

could you show us please? I just gave you a 60 min Spy chart, just coming off of bearish divergent highs, and it hasn't done another update yet :lol:

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#9 NAV

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Posted 12 November 2009 - 12:13 PM

A chart is worth thousand words....

If we are talkin about the divergences on the 60-min chart, we are coming off of negative divergences (RSI, CCI, MACD). As for the oversold stuff, we are still in a overbought area on my slow stoch. Admittedly my Slow Stoch is tuned for slow settings to catch the entire move. Even if one uses the standard Fast Stoch, i don't see any oversold conditions there. The only oversold is probably on the 1-min chart at this stage. That does not mean a reversal cannot happen here. If it happens, it will not be because of positive div or oversold on hourly, but based on the big guys jamming the markets based on the uptrending hourly.

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