Closing all long positions at the close today

I expected today to show a significant blast higher, everything is in place and it is failing to ignite, perhaps a gap up and run Monday. However, I suspect the leadership will be in energy only, which is a short for me at that point given all the laggards so far such as breadth or small caps, divergent new highs and so on. I stayed with the rally due to the leadership in the tech, industrials and consumer stocks. This offers potential even it is only a large cap rally now. I guess I won't be riding the last 25-30 points either. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered... I hope to exit around 1100 or a little over, but the stop is around 1091. I will be preparing to trade a range since it is still too early in the cycle low, but so far the strength tells me the trend will not be strongly going up anymore. Not an outright short in my opinion, but it will be any rally after the expirations imho. The only reason we rallied so far is probably because of the risk of delta hedge failure for November... Best of luck...

It still looks like gap up and go for Monday, but I am mostly done here, small trading positions here and there. I still think it is too early to sell short. Have a great weekend.

As NAV pointed out the other day, there's just too many MCSUM's creating ledges right now for this to be ignored. The great thing though about ledges is that they do form prior to the final correctional unwinding process, so a better time to move "all in" on the long side is still over the horizon. On flip side, you can always go back in on a move above the declining tops line on the various MCO's. Nice job on the trade. Fib

Nice trade, Arb. Risk/Reward here is not worth holding over a weekend.

Thank you, thank you...

The breadth held again today despite the intraday sell off and it continued to consume the supply into the close, it was encouraging to some degree for more upside on Monday. We may open lower on Sunday and then rapidly go higher. Perhaps it may rally a bit further on Monday, it is long due to poke near 1112-1116 and really see whether it holds. I kept a tiny pivot long position, nothing major to hurt if wrong...

I think most small to mid cap stocks bottomed late this time due to the nature of the rally. I see this as a topping, but still a dull market with more upside due to the relative volatility compared to the amount of rally, 1080 held for example. I also see the cumulative breadth improving during the consolidation and it finished the week with an upbeat tone in my opinion even though many think the opposite way.

We may begin the new week with a blast higher and consolidate mostly without much gains and then run up during the low volume Thanksgiving for a final push. I expect lower for the week following the Thanksgiving. As you see, I still could not get outright bearish yet to position short though, this will not really happen until I see a new high with extreme divergence next with mostly the energy leadership...

Best of luck.

I also see the cumulative breadth improving during the consolidation and it finished the week with an upbeat tone in my opinion even though many think the opposite way.

Presented for further discussion.

Fib

Bumping on the upper trendline on DJIA may also limit risk/reward for longs here. Echo

The risk reward is not very favorable right, well I know... But some points of view... I will post more chart as my time permits this weekend. I see a snap back to 600 for RUT for example. This means there might be more upside for the breadth similar to this;

This is too early in the cycle low in my measures and I believe my cycle timing is correct now. The market completed 92 day latest possible cycle low for the worst quality stocks on Thursday and Friday and we have a lot of lagging stocks now. This is a very late rally...

The chances are we are marking THE top of the snap back rally and we will resume the secular bear into 2012 from here. Given in that context any kind of ridiculous run ups are to be expected and the absolute process topping should take about 1-1.5 more months...

I am actually very bearish into 2010, I think 2010 will be a repeat of 2008, the best case would be a repeat of 2005...

Butt ugly and it will get uglier... Thu and Fri shorts will be burned first though... Unless we make a U-turn by the open and gap down big, we will run 20-25 points and top by Wednesday around 1120s... NDX up 0.31%, SPX up 0.41%, GC up 0.74%, CL up 0.84%... This trend is now in big big trouble... Not only the internals are severely lagging, we have inflationary issues leading... The printing is now going to the wrong places... Still too early to sell though, it should still take 7-8 sessions to top, probably after going parabolic...

Of course, Russell 2000 is bouncing strongly now that it refueled... 0.82%... They showed their hand, the bankers showed their hand at 1040, the overnight action after the Fed meeting ahead of G-20... The tape has shown you all you needed that morning... Anyhow, a lot of water under the bridge now...