New Macro Trading Plan.

The market today closed on defense in my data scans. No signal one way or another, and certainly not positive signals. Friday volume was very low, volatility high, 24 sectors down and 16 sectors up weakly.Oil down 2.7% and I am still short crude due to the up dollar I expect to go into year end. The SP5 "looks" fine, but gives no sign of future potential; I am still long, but hedged. 1103 high Nov 11th, seems to attract for now, but it may be the high before a shocking correction. I suspect a correction of 10-15% (at least) would make me a strong buyer of the leveraged SP (SSO) right up to the Congressional elections. This could be an excellent point of entry but only after a correction. The Dollar seems to be the Key what gets killed in a correction. If US$ rises oil, gold and financial stocks are losers. If i$ falls commodities rise, they will be counter to the equities and not do much but may even be good buys. The advances in commodities have been 62% in my holdings, so I am not expecting much now except NG and wheat have which yet to move. When these move they will go up 30-50%. Technically the dollar seems to be bottoming for a time (IT?) and has a high probability of a rise into the end of the year and could precipitate the correction in stocks that is coming. I have hedged my PM holdings, but I not at a point of sale, not even near a sell. Inflation is destiny the next two years. The gold is the most bullish I have seen it in 40 years of trading. Buy high and sell higher, we are in a vacuum that will pull gold much higher. I am worried the miners are lagging, but watching for now. IF the miners stay weak get nervous. After the correction the market be flooded with liquidity for the fall 2010 election. Long range the market is a buy sometime after the correction, but with appropriate hedges, and stops. Market will stay a wounded animal and very dangerous to those who relax. Best, Islander.

40 yrs of trading? wow. i guess you do not buy into prechter's call of C wave of selling that would as vicious as wave A from 2007-march 2009

Edited by andiron, 13 November 2009 - 07:50 PM.

Isllander, yes I agree with your views, this pricing action as of now is very bearish, I've been watching the ticker for 20 years and the current moment is very bearish. But strangely, the oil is heading down while the dollar is rising. maybe it was over hyped and demand is just not there.

Isllander, yes I agree with your views, this pricing action as of now is very bearish, I've been watching the ticker for 20 years and the current moment is very bearish.

But strangely, the oil is heading down while the dollar is rising. maybe it was over hyped and demand is just not there.

Demand was never there. Demand here was low, so to facilitate the pump, folks were lead to believe world demand was strong, so the US didn't matter. While this story was being floated, there was so much supply in China, tankers had to sit off sea, because there was no more storage.

Isllander, yes I agree with your views, this pricing action as of now is very bearish, I've been watching the ticker for 20 years and the current moment is very bearish.

But strangely, the oil is heading down while the dollar is rising. maybe it was over hyped and demand is just not there.

Demand was never there. Demand here was low, so to facilitate the pump, folks were lead to believe world demand was strong, so the US didn't matter. While this story was being floated, there was so much supply in China, tankers had to sit off sea, because there was no more storage.

Another point was the athorities are trying to get the tankers off the local waters in singapore now.... I've never seen the beaches with so many ships in my life before.

I respect Preacher's views, he is entitled to them and I have learned from him. But politics is so ingrained in the market, and one sided, that we must expect an all out push to keep Congress. The dollar is still up for grabs, but I say it corrects its decline and becomes the driver of a market change. Remember I am wrong about 50% of the time. Yes, I am getting old, and thanks for the wow (it shocks even me now and then to be 70+). But it Should inspire you to take care of yourself and enjoy a good life. I do and I am thankful for having it. Best, Islander

Islander, thank you very much for taking the time to post here.

Thanks for sharing the wisdom here. I really appreciate it.

I respect Preacher's views, he is entitled to them and I have learned from him. But politics is so ingrained in the market, and one sided, that we must expect an all out push to keep Congress. The dollar is still up for grabs, but I say it corrects its decline and becomes the driver of a market change. Remember I am wrong about 50% of the time.

Yes, I am getting old, and thanks for the wow (it shocks even me now and then to be 70+). But it Should inspire you to take care of yourself and enjoy a good life. I do and I am thankful for having it.

Best, Islander

Islander you truly are an inspiration...I just hope I can be half as good a trader as you have been and are....thanks for posting ur views:)