Which Indicators are Giving a Heads Up Now

Woody's question in his headline was "Which Indicators Gave a Heads Up at the March Lows?" Subtitled "Here is my Brief Summary"

In each case I compared the Indicator Values at March with the Nov Lows.......

These Daily Indicators showed a positive divergence with price: (You may have others)

ITBM, ITVM, PMO (Decision Point)
BPI
NH/NL
MCO
Summations
AYDIS 10 EMA (my personal data)
VIX/VXO (lower than at Nov considered Bullish)

Many of the above are derivatives of breadth data and to some extent just duplicate data already presented, the actual AD Lines did not show a Pos Div)

These Weekly Indicators Showed a Positive Divergence with Price:

CCI
RSI
MACD

The only Sentiment Indicators I could find that showed More Bearishness (which i consider Bullish) were:

AAII
Hulbert's Naz Sentiment

The Put Call Data was useless to me in picking the March low fwiw

Comments welcome

Of all the posts this year, this stuck out in my mind because the question was perhaps the most important one we could have asked in 2009. And in March 2009, few were really paying attention to these indicators because the market was so persistently weak. Remember? When Woody posted this I made a note that we should at some point in the future ask the opposite question because, once again, the answer has HUGE implications, and when the indicators do give that heads up, it will look persistently strong, and it will be easy to overlook these!

So I ask - Which indicators are now giving a heads up that we are in the vicinity of a top?

Here's my list from Decision Point:

As the DJIA and SPX tagged new high ground this week, these indicators said "No! There's big trouble ahead":

NYSE Non-confirmation
NYSE A-D line Non-confirmation
NYSE A-D volume line Non-confirmation
NAZ Index Non-confirmation
Naz A-D line Non-confirmation
Naz A-D volume line Non-confirmation
NDX A-D line Non-confirmation
NDX A-D volume line Non-confirmation
SPX A-D line Non-confirmation
SPX A-D volume line Non-confirmation
OEX A-D volume line Non-confirmation
DJIA A-D volume line Non-confirmation
SPX 400 Index Non-confirmation
SPX 400 A-D line Non-confirmation
SPX 400 A-D volume line Non-confirmation
SPX 600 Index Non-confirmation
SPX 600 A-D line Non-confirmation
SPX 600 A-D volume line Non-confirmation
Wilshire 5000 Index Non-confirmation
Wilshire 5000 line Non-confirmation
Wilshire 5000 volume line Non-confirmation
Spyder Fincl Index Non-confirmation
Spyder Fincl line Non-confirmation
Spyder Fincl volume line Non-confirmation
SPX VTO Around Zero at new highs on market
NDX VTO BELOW Zero at new highs on market
NYSE ITBM BELOW Zero at new highs on market
NYSE ITVM BELOW Zero at new highs on market
NAZ ITBM BELOW Zero at new highs on market
NAZ ITVM BELOW Zero at new highs on market
SPX ITVM BELOW Zero at new highs on market
OEX ITVM BELOW Zero at new highs on market
SPX 600 ITBM BELOW Zero at new highs on market
SPX 600 ITVM BELOW Zero at new highs on market
Wilshire 5000 ITBM BELOW Zero at new highs on market
Wilshire ITVM BELOW Zero at new highs on market
NYSE McO Common Only About Zero at new highs on market
NAZ McO Sum BELOW Zero at new highs on market
SPX 400 McO Sum BELOW Zero at new highs on market
SPX 600 McO Sum BELOW Zero at new highs on market
Wishire 5000 McO Sum About Zero at new highs on market
Spyder Fincl McO Sum BELOW Zero at new highs on market

I left out lots of indicators that were rather redundant like consumer discretionary, etc. But as my opposite list in March 2009 was important then, I strongly believe that the above indicators are screaming out a message now - one which whould not be ignored. Jmho. Good trading, D

Nice summary, Don

For me, perhaps the biggest question is the following:

Are we at this point in the midst of a strongly bullish market that is correcting very overbought conditions and internals "on the fly" (translate, high level consolidation) and we are nearly ready for the next leg up, or are these very same internals signalling impending weakness just as you are suggesting.

Perhaps one clue would be to set aside the Dow and SPX for a moment (as they are obviously diverging) and look at each of the other indexes or sectors, be it the nasdaq, ndx, oex, mid, sml, rut, nya, wlsh, xlf, xlk, xl*, and their respective AD lines and UD lines and McClellan data for internal confirmations or non-confirmations to gain a handle on where the various parts of the broad market stands with respect to its internals.

Then combine it with other tools, cycles, sentiment, etc to come up with a probable forecast.

I would welcome your thoughts in this regard and also Fibs, or any one else for that matter.

Echo

Nice summary, Don

For me, perhaps the biggest question is the following:

Are we at this point in the midst of a strongly bullish market that is correcting very overbought conditions and internals "on the fly" (translate, high level consolidation) and we are nearly ready for the next leg up, or are these very same internals signalling impending weakness just as you are suggesting.

Perhaps one clue would be to set aside the Dow and SPX for a moment (as they are obviously diverging) and look at each of the other indexes or sectors, be it the nasdaq, ndx, oex, mid, sml, rut, nya, wlsh, xlf, xlk, xl*, and their respective AD lines and UD lines and McClellan data for internal confirmations or non-confirmations to gain a handle on where the various parts of the broad market stands with respect to its internals.

Then combine it with other tools, cycles, sentiment, etc to come up with a probable forecast.

I would welcome your thoughts in this regard and also Fibs, or any one else for that matter.

Echo

Great points Doc. But I still truly believe that when the narrowest of indices, the DJIA makes new highs and is universally non confirmed by the entire broad market, that there is an urgent message there- a sell signal. Let's see if that's still true as in the past....

If not, I promise to put together my thots on the above, because they make complete sense. Sorta sound like a scientist saying, "If the meteor misses us, I'll study your reasons why it should miss, but if strikes then nothing matters anyway. But seriously, I will consider your ideas as it is becoming more apparent that this market is bifurcating and perhaps the ticket, as you suggest, is to play the two segments seperately....

For me the best indicator through my trading experience has been nikkei non reaction to dow, the biggest ever sell signal i've got.

For me the best indicator through my trading experience has been nikkei non reaction to dow, the biggest ever sell signal i've got.

Not to be disagreeable, but it is quite possible that the $NIKK corrected the July advance in a way ( EW count) than the $INDU or $SPX.

I really think it is at a moment to try the long side on the $NIKK or the etf for it ( EWJ). Stop out under the recent lows. Probably wrong but it looks like as good as opportunity as there has been for $NIK in quite sometime.

For me the best indicator through my trading experience has been nikkei non reaction to dow, the biggest ever sell signal i've got.

Not to be disagreeable, but it is quite possible that the $NIKK corrected the July advance in a way ( EW count) than the $INDU or $SPX.

I really think it is at a moment to try the long side on the $NIKK or the etf for it ( EWJ). Stop out under the recent lows. Probably wrong but it looks like as good as opportunity as there has been for $NIK in quite sometime.

I think the nikkei have not corrected it yet.. I went long every day for two weeks of nikkei plunge almost at 9700 -9800 and sold off as soon as I got a fifity point rebound. Than I stop it, gut feel tell me to stop it something is wrong, I might be losing big time. I went to short on es at 1101 instead as posted.

If the US corrects the nikkei will correct further, the nikkei plays look like they are in anitcipation a major down signal. Insitituational selling has been tremendous based on my news I've got. As far as I know the sell down from US is about to start.

On ALL ocassion when nikkei did not react for an extended period i.e a few months, the sell down on US would start will a time lag.

For me the best indicator through my trading experience has been nikkei non reaction to dow, the biggest ever sell signal i've got.

Not to be disagreeable, but it is quite possible that the $NIKK corrected the July advance in a way ( EW count) than the $INDU or $SPX.

I really think it is at a moment to try the long side on the $NIKK or the etf for it ( EWJ). Stop out under the recent lows. Probably wrong but it looks like as good as opportunity as there has been for $NIK in quite sometime.

I think the nikkei have not corrected it yet.. I went long every day for two weeks of nikkei plunge almost at 9700 -9800 and sold off as soon as I got a fifity point rebound. Than I stop it, gut feel tell me to stop it something is wrong, I might be losing big time. I went to short on es at 1101 instead as posted.

If the US corrects the nikkei will correct further, the nikkei plays look like they are in anitcipation a major down signal. Insitituational selling has been tremendous based on my news I've got. As far as I know the sell down from US is about to start.

On ALL ocassion when nikkei did not react for an extended period i.e a few months, the sell down on US would start will a time lag.

Which way is the US $ going?

For me the best indicator through my trading experience has been nikkei non reaction to dow, the biggest ever sell signal i've got.

Not to be disagreeable, but it is quite possible that the $NIKK corrected the July advance in a way ( EW count) than the $INDU or $SPX.

I really think it is at a moment to try the long side on the $NIKK or the etf for it ( EWJ). Stop out under the recent lows. Probably wrong but it looks like as good as opportunity as there has been for $NIK in quite sometime.

I think the nikkei have not corrected it yet.. I went long every day for two weeks of nikkei plunge almost at 9700 -9800 and sold off as soon as I got a fifity point rebound. Than I stop it, gut feel tell me to stop it something is wrong, I might be losing big time. I went to short on es at 1101 instead as posted.

If the US corrects the nikkei will correct further, the nikkei plays look like they are in anitcipation a major down signal. Insitituational selling has been tremendous based on my news I've got. As far as I know the sell down from US is about to start.

On ALL ocassion when nikkei did not react for an extended period i.e a few months, the sell down on US would start will a time lag.

EWJ chart looks better than the $Nikk chart.

Don, you summarized the "gravity" of the situation pretty well, but then we must always get a bit more euphoric at the tops, don't we? Let's see how this one will top out, I only see a bunch of nice wiggles on my charts with higher highs and higher lows, even RUT has put a higher low from the previous 16-17wk cycle low, it needs to get messed up and ugly first... This is just too nice of a top signal here, the traders are just realizing the crappy a/d etc, but they are not ignoring them yet, they are not blindly buying calls on the declines, the small speculative purchases are not soaring week after another... Of course, this is not the '90s or earlier this decade, but then we always get some sort of supreme euphoria, the October highs were pretty decent, but even it lacked the proper breadth divergence... I am looking forward to the blow offs after another without any basis... Best, -g

something has changed with nikkei something changed after the elections they changed government for the first time in decades that could very well be the reason the development in the yen also confirms that something has changed