Monday, Monday

It looks bad for the bears on Monday. If the Globex action continues the way it has been, we're going to get a repeat of last Monday's scenario -- a pump of the futures overnight to the 1096-1100 level, triggering a short covering rally at the open, and then a probable run to the 1110-1120 level. I guess "gap and crap" could also occur, but one shouldn't trade on hope.

It looks bad for the bears on Monday. If the Globex action continues the way it has been, we're going to get a repeat of last Monday's scenario -- a pump of the futures
overnight to the 1096-1100 level, triggering a short covering rally at the open, and then a probable run to the 1110-1120 level.

I guess "gap and crap" could also occur, but one shouldn't trade on hope.

My charts look medium term... We could rally on good breadth, and the last 3 weeks could be a large setup for the bears.... We know that so far breadth is waning... I would not count on the futures at this point to indicate tomorrow. But am I worried... Yes... I need to pay close attention to the market in the morning to see if I should step aside, but currently I still think we are going lower....

Barry

I had a bunch of overbought indicators go off on Thursday and took some short positions on Friday. However, I have a bad feeling about Monday, assuming the Europeans take up where the Asians left off. We'll see how we close, but if we hold 1100+ after the opening chaos and into mid-morning, I'm probably going to partially cover. On a positive note, the market seems to be running on a 8-10 day cycle that's now getting a little long in the tooth.

Edited by Lysis, 15 November 2009 - 11:06 PM.

It looks bad for the bears on Monday. If the Globex action continues the way it has been, we're going to get a repeat of last Monday's scenario -- a pump of the futures
overnight to the 1096-1100 level, triggering a short covering rally at the open, and then a probable run to the 1110-1120 level.

I guess "gap and crap" could also occur, but one shouldn't trade on hope.

My charts look medium term... We could rally on good breadth, and the last 3 weeks could be a large setup for the bears.... We know that so far breadth is waning... I would not count on the futures at this point to indicate tomorrow. But am I worried... Yes... I need to pay close attention to the market in the morning to see if I should step aside, but currently I still think we are going lower....

Barry

Barry, was thinking if you were looking at the third week of oct, the pattern might be the same high start drop after an hour of trading rise back at end of day,

Tues large drop.

Wed rebound. large drop on friday and the month has a bad last week.

It looks bad for the bears on Monday. If the Globex action continues the way it has been, we're going to get a repeat of last Monday's scenario -- a pump of the futures
overnight to the 1096-1100 level, triggering a short covering rally at the open, and then a probable run to the 1110-1120 level.

I guess "gap and crap" could also occur, but one shouldn't trade on hope.

My charts look medium term... We could rally on good breadth, and the last 3 weeks could be a large setup for the bears.... We know that so far breadth is waning... I would not count on the futures at this point to indicate tomorrow. But am I worried... Yes... I need to pay close attention to the market in the morning to see if I should step aside, but currently I still think we are going lower....

Barry

Barry, was thinking if you were looking at the third week of oct, the pattern might be the same high start drop after an hour of trading rise back at end of day,

Tues large drop.

Wed rebound. large drop on friday and the month has a bad last week.

I can't agree with you more... I'm looking at TRIN, CBOE and OEX Put/Call in the morning and breadth, and see how it plays out.... We should be dropping soon here.... We can't stand another higher day for the bears unless it is one of terrible breadth.. My trend indicators are switching bullish. All it will take is a day with higher volume and good breadth..... I don't think we will get it, but we'll see...

Barry

asia mostly busting over recent consolidation-terry wins

looks like jumping the creek. Had I not posted, I would not sing like Mama's and Papa's...Monday, Monday...




Monday, Monday, so good to me
Monday mornin', it was all I hoped it would be
Oh Monday mornin', Monday mornin' couldn't guarantee
That Monday evenin' you would still be here with me

Monday, Monday, can't trust that day
Monday, Monday, sometimes it just turns out that way
Oh Monday mornin' you gave me no warnin' of what was to be
Oh Monday, Monday, how could you leave and not take me

Every other day, every other day
Every other day of the week is fine, yeah
But whenever Monday comes, but whenever Monday comes
A-you can find me cryin' all of the time

Looks like we'll need some really bad news in the morning to turn this one around. Meanwhile, how 'bout those Colts? -- Dollar Falls on APEC Pledge to Keep Stimulus; Gold Hits Record By Masaki Kondo and Lilian Karunungan Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar weakened as Asian-Pacific leaders pledged to maintain stimulus measures, supporting demand for higher-yielding assets and sending gold to a record. Most Japanese stocks fell on concern banks will issue new shares. The Dollar Index lost 0.3 percent to 75.106 as the Asia- Pacific Economic Cooperation group said they would keep spending until there was “durable” growth. The Malaysian ringgit led gains among Asian currencies after Japan’s gross domestic product rose more than estimated in the third quarter. “The fundamentals of the economy are continuing to improve,” said Masaru Hamasaki, a strategist at Tokyo-based Toyota Asset Management Co., which oversees the equivalent of $14 billion. “People in the market tend to underestimate the effects of stimulus measures, but they are always effective.” The U.S. currency fell 0.3 percent to $1.4944 against the euro as of 11:30 a.m. in Tokyo, extending its loss this year to 6.6 percent as governments expanded stimulus measure to arrest the global recession. The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against six currencies including the euro and yen, extended a two-week drop.

I'm actually looking for a weekly key reversal. Then eventually retest it on Christmas. Short another 1/4 IT 1800 NDX

On a positive note, the market seems to be running on a 8-10 day cycle that's now getting a little long in the tooth.

9-10 day cycle bottomed on Thursday.

The market is not going down in November, you can mark these words, I told you earlier this month. This month will close UP, the world bankers and leaders decided to pump up the markets ahead of the holiday sales in US. They would rather see the inflation than deflation during the holiday sales. We will not get three bad Thanksgiving in a row after going up until this far. I mean common sense people...

Nobody is selling... We are floating up on low volume... What's the rush? Let it float as high as possible on Fed's money and sell later.