Just my opinion. It's your money. You decide.
UUP
USD
courtesy of Kenny's Blog.
Best most obvious trade
Started by
Jnavin
, Jan 12 2010 11:19 PM
10 replies to this topic
#1
Jnavin
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#2
goldswinger
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Posted 12 January 2010 - 11:24 PM
Just my opinion. It's your money. You decide.
UUP
USD
courtesy of Kenny's Blog.
It is interesting how UUP has already done its 50% retrace while $USD is doing it Tonight/Tomorrow AM......
GS.
#3
thespookyone
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Posted 12 January 2010 - 11:34 PM
Agreed, have my students taking Feb UUP 22 Call position tomorrow-we planned it for a while.
#4
fib_1618
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Posted 13 January 2010 - 12:40 AM
Are those your count ideas?Just my opinion.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
#5
Jnavin
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Posted 13 January 2010 - 08:14 AM
Fib, I like Kenny's count -- but I've been doing this for so long that I always keep alternate counts as well. You know. So, it might be an a-b-c up rather than a impulse. Emphasis on "might be."
But the probabilities seem to be on the impulse side for now.
#6
fib_1618
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Posted 13 January 2010 - 09:31 AM
OK...I just wasn't sure on who to give suggestions to.I like Kenny's count
I would just be cognizant of being able to differentiate between corrective and trending impulsive wave patterns. Knowing the psychological backdrop of these same 5 wave structures will tend to keep you on track with this methodology. In this particular case, it's a rare event when the majority recognizes a turn in the trend (wave 1) where it most likely turns out to be the final corrective process within the longer term trend (wave C). Watch your momentum indicators for additional insight (5's diverge with 3's as C's diverge with A's).
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
#7
Jnavin
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Posted 13 January 2010 - 09:46 AM
Yeah, I know. Hey Fib, do you have a Twitter feed?
#8
fib_1618
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Posted 13 January 2010 - 10:10 AM
Nope..I don't believe in Twitter. 10 years from now we'll look back on this one and say "what did we do?"do you have a Twitter feed?
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
#9
Echo
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Posted 13 January 2010 - 03:03 PM
I'm no ewave expert, but it seems to me that after an extended downmove in the dollar, and a corrective/impulsive countertrend move, that a retrace of more than 38% to the downside might be expected, perhaps 61.8%?
Echo
#10
fib_1618
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Posted 13 January 2010 - 03:42 PM
Generally speaking, if it's a 2 as the post provides, then it should be closer to .618, but no less than 50%. If it's a B wave, the same guidelines apply. If it's a 4th wave, .382 is the guideline...minimally .236.but it seems to me that after an extended downmove in the dollar, and a corrective/impulsive countertrend move, that a retrace of more than 38% to the downside might be expected, perhaps 61.8%?
It really all depends on the degree of trend and its direct context to the bigger picture. For example, the structure and momentum of the move from the October lows is fully consistent to an irregular flat...C wave just completed. If this is the case, we should see multiple gaps down through these same Fib retracement points as the larger implusive trend reinforces itself. If we find support, it's more than likely a B wave - probably a triangle.
In the fullness of time.
Fib
Better to ignore me than abhor me.
“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin
"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw
Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.
