"Surprising Decline"

Maybe not as surprising for some...

http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=501909

Thanks Mr Mkt

Maybe not as surprising for some...

http://www.traders-t...?...st&p=501909

As per usual.

This is what we sent out Wednesday morning before the open:

Conclusion
Last time, I said that I was looking for a rally on Monday (aren't all Mondays up?), down on Tuesday into Wednesday and then up for the rest of the week. So far, so good, BUT, they've thrown us a curve with the FL/FS Buy. In a Bull market during options expiration, we need to be willing to pull the trigger more quickly. Also, we have a Sell from ISEE and the OEX. There was a correction of the TickerSense sentiment which take that out of the Bearish and puts it into the Bullish column, but not heavily so. There are a lot of cross currents. Basically, here is my read: The market "should" sell down today for a bit, but I suspect that it won't. If we get money flow positive, they'll likely bounce the market today. It also won't be fully "ready" to rally, so there's a decent chance of some chop and maybe even surprising weakness into Friday. I believe that would catch the largest number flat footed.

well, there was no reason for the rise except opex - note bene, selloff started right at the open, and overnight pushed it to a pretty decent open - then, all those put buyers from the last three days were in line to get their rewards nex. as i said in anoither thread - the small steps up were to discourage as many bears as possible. keep an eye on isee to see if this decline is going to be over yet, so far, not.

ISEE says this is just the beginning of a week or so of generally lower prices. M

ISEE says this is just the beginning of a week or so of generally lower prices.

M

summation turning today and MACD saying sell also on daily timeframe...some sort of test into next week underway.

ISEE says this is just the beginning of a week or so of generally lower prices.

M

summation turning today and MACD saying sell also on daily timeframe...some sort of test into next week underway.

first test 1132 SPX, then 1115-18:

#1

Not surprising, thanks to Traders Almanac...

Stock Traders Almanac says:
Jan expiration week Dow down big 8 of last 11.
January Expiration Day, Dow Down down 9 of the last 11 with big losses.
Off 2% in 06, 1.3% in 03 and 1.6% in 1999

Right now, near 1135, we are down over 1% on the day, a little less on the week.

AAII and TSP both showed a rebound in bullishness for the week.

AAII:
as of 1/13/2010) 64%
Bullish: 47.44%
Neutral: 25.64%
Bearish: 26.92%

(as of 1/6/2010) 61%
Bullish: 41.00%
Neutral: 33.00%
Bearish: 26.00%

TSP:
01/22/10 58% 25% 2.32
01/15/10 49% 38% 1.29

I question if we can tag Terry Laundry's upper envelope channel next week before a larger decline:
Friday Morning 8AM Jan 15 2010 Comment for Jan 14 Close: Forecast remains bullish until the S&P reaches the chart Objective at the upper red envelope, now S&P 1165-ish in the table. However time is rapidly running out for the Tiny Red T in the chart and it appears that the upside momentum is diminishing as is normal when approaching a T's projected peak date.

I would expect that after any strong bounce in the next few days the market will run out of upside momentum and a modest correction will take place. The blue Volume Oscillator will have to fall below the zero line and the Arms Ratio will need to rise to high numbers before the Main Short Range T can resume the up trend.

The Green AD Line which is in a strong uptrend is obviously rising with the bigger Current Short Range T's trend projected into May, so the correction is likely just to be an interruption to the basic bull market advance. It is difficult to reach any more definitive forecast because the channels are narrowing and there is not enough volatility to draw any more small Ts.

But generally we should see a peak in the days just ahead and the subsequent correction should provide a better buying opportunity later when we have more data.
Terry

Edited by Rogerdodger, 15 January 2010 - 11:42 AM.

RD, what IS that avatar?