Everyone on this board including the bears

Either they are afraid to sell short or they cover too quickly and they even look to buy the dips to flip a few points for bounces. This is normal, it is called being conditioned by the trend. Am I some sort of a supreme being who can sell this market and know that it will decline? Of course not, but my bias HAS NOT CHANGED by the 20 point ramp up from 1115-1125 where I called the top.

This will be one of the tops you will remember, WHY? In bear markets, the tops come when the breadth looks excellent, everything convinces you that it is a new bull market and all. In my opinion, we have nothing going for the bull market, nada, zip. The only thing that we keep hearing is the breadth leading and all, get this, when we rallied on Jan 4th, the momentum was already divergent and they kept the parody going for another 2 weeks. We may bounce and all next week, but if this is still a bear market and we had the most spectacular bear market rally since 1930s and 1970s secular bears, it will also top similarly, it will not let anyone get in short...

So, now this is not something I came up with because of this 15 points drop so far, this is after countless comparisons and research and price targets one after another that came and I remarked since September. We have the cumulative breadth momentum (slide all the way down) also turn down from here, right under the resistance. We have the Hurst cascading setup for a decent sell off from here, we have tremendous speculative activity --no reference about this, but most data is publicly available.

This has to be an intermediate term top, I will let the market do the talking from here, but we may have potentially a first crack for something much bigger too, twt...

Best of luck.

Today's pole was very evenly split. IF we sell down into the close with a high closing trin, very negative tick, I think the overconfident bears will be at risk of another pop, however short lived. But I would be inclined to add shorts on any pop.

This will be one of the tops you will remember

Whoa, wait a minute. Are you calling this another "THEE top" again. Forget about LT and IT tops. Have you ever seen even a ST top occur without a retracement failure on hourly charts ? Wait for that retracement before jumping the gun.

In my opinion, we have nothing going for the bull market, nada, zip. The only thing that we keep hearing is the breadth leading and all

Thats a proven indicator and theory. Terry has 30 years of data and analysis to support that thesis. You may want to check out his charts from 73 with A/D line vs price relationship. They are instructive. Although, this time could be different, i will go with something proven for now.

it will not let anyone get in short...

If you are expecting a multi-month decline, why not ? Or are you subtly suggesting a CRASH is going to happen here ?

We all trade differently and in different time frames. For the home run hitter you may right but for some of us blue collar trader folks have racked up enough points in the past two weeks to miss the first leg down and still be way ahead of the points one will get waiting for the big one. So it's all relative captain arbs I known your one happy camper today. btw Im relaxing after a vidy nice week. Tommy you happy now!

This will be one of the tops you will remember

it will not let anyone get in short...

If you are expecting a multi-month decline, why not ? Or are you subtly suggesting a CRASH is going to happen here ?

I don't get that either. We have so many support levels below that even if this was a major top, there'd be plenty of time to get in short. If support was minimal, we could swoosh down, locking out all shorts, but that isn't the case.

NAV, third time is the charm, we'll see I expect at least a 5 week sell off from here until March. This one will be inflated back up probably into spring, but I do not know, the dirty laundry usually comes out after the fact... This kind of bullishness only happened before during the 2000 top, not ahead of 2004 corrective action... fyi.

I'm watchin' a blue line.
It looks like "they" are too.
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p48845342763&a=95529637&r=5386.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 15 January 2010 - 03:08 PM.

laza, I expect all of the supports below to be broken according to the Hurst stuff I posted. I do not consider 1115 gap, 1090 supports as important at this juncture, there should be ferocious bounces of course...

the dirty laundry usually comes out after the fact...

the dirty laundry usually comes out after the fact...

We will get some sort of decline and they will announce the bad news and then there will be some sort of rally. For now we only sold off on the earnings...


Z, we finally got an intraday rally set up... perhaps into the close...