$SPX Hurst 10 week lows

I use thinkorswim (free software with trading account) and track cycles using this software and other tools. I'm looking hard for where a 10 week low comes in. I have assumed that $SPX cycle periods will extend to more normal times (10 week lows have been very short since the March 2009 low). You can see where the stochastic uptrendline is broken, I use this as a guage and warning that a 10 week low is approaching and forming. Note that early in the 80 week cycle (off the March low), 10 week cycle lows come early. This is typical cyclic price behaviour and if you study the Hurst course, you will understand why. I can't tell now if a 10 week cycle low arrived recently (it may be arriving next week, which would be a longer cycle period than we have been seeing last year). Cycles will be very difficult to play on the $SPX from here. A 20 week low is due in March. cheers, john P.S. Taking the long crude trade today. Long USO here at 38.05.

Thanks for the update, John. It seems like a number of 'Hursties' think the cycles might be elongating again. Airedale always used to say that in these cases, look to the shorter cycles (3-4, 6-7 day) for confirmation/clarification, not the cycle longer than the one you're tracking. Best regards, ~D

Edited by dowdeva, 20 January 2010 - 02:41 PM.

I use thinkorswim (free software with trading account) and track cycles using this software and other tools. I'm looking hard for where a 10 week low comes in. I have assumed that $SPX cycle periods will extend to more normal times (10 week lows have been very short since the March 2009 low).



You can see where the stochastic uptrendline is broken, I use this as a guage and warning that a 10 week low is approaching and forming. Note that early in the 80 week cycle (off the March low), 10 week cycle lows come early. This is typical cyclic price behaviour and if you study the Hurst course, you will understand why.

I can't tell now if a 10 week cycle low arrived recently (it may be arriving next week, which would be a longer cycle period than we have been seeing last year). Cycles will be very difficult to play on the $SPX from here. A 20 week low is due in March.

cheers,

john

P.S. Taking the long crude trade today. Long USO here at 38.05.

Look for a bounce here as several measures of stochastics got ST oversold today..... I am looking for a bounce back to 1150 (outside chance of NAV's and Tom Landry's 1165 target)....cycle turn is end of January...into Feb 1/2.... I will look to sell price more than time here as that is a wide time range for a secondary top. Look it.... whether you short 1140, 1150 or 1160 .... it doesn't matter.... we're heading lower into March.....

I am looking for a bounce back to 1150 (outside chance of NAV's and Tom Landry's 1165 target)....cycle turn is end of January...into Feb 1/2.... I will look to sell price more than time here as that is a wide time range for a secondary top. Look it.... whether you short 1140, 1150 or 1160 .... it doesn't matter.... we're heading lower into March.....

Could be. Be advised that I have higher Hurst targets, in the 1174-1214 +/- 53 points posted a long time ago. Granted we are in the lower window for that range, but there is nothing so far to indicate that those targets won't get satisfied in this 80wk cycle (not over till the summer)...That could be a lot of drawdown pain for a shorting campaign starting in the 1140-1160 range and the 80wk low could come at higher levels, especially if the pseudotrend continues. See the problem is, no one knows how long the pseudotrend will continue. The cumul AD Line suggests it will continue at least a bit longer.

Doc

hi echo, I'm not been inclined to play shorts much other than a day trade. There will be good opportunities, but one has to be patient. And right now the bears are losing patience. Hope to see you get involved with THT. cheers, john