Sp500: july 2011 target...

well...I would like to put under your strict judgement my own forecast for a long term...

to Mr. Rogerdogder ( If you don't mind I would like to go on with the discussion at your post
http://www.traders-t...mp;#entry502949

as I think it is too interesting for everybody....
I answered you in that post....maybe you have lost it temporaneously...)

you know, I am stressing out july 2011 as an important low of this index, as I think starting from february will begin a flow, steady downtrend which will last 15 months at least and....( because of my sixt sense hehehe) I miss another low lower than march 09 ones! )

of course, after that low, market will turn for a very long uptrend ( at least 2 years long )
Please apology me for the quality of my chart....but as of now I don't have any other chance..

what do you think?



am I too much fool to predict like this??


ciao

Edited by Italiantrader, 21 January 2010 - 02:17 AM.

[quote name='Italiantrader' post='502950' date='Jan 21 2010, 03:15 AM']well...I would like to put under your strict judgement my own forecast for a long term...

to Mr. Rogerdogder ( If you don't mind I would like to go on with the discussion at your post
http://www.traders-t...mp;#entry502949

as I think it is too interesting for everybody....
I answered you in that post....maybe you have lost it temporaneously...)

you know, I am stressing out july 2011 as an important low of this index, as I think starting from february will begin a flow, steady downtrend which will last 15 months at least and....( because of my sixt sense hehehe) I miss another low lower than march 09 ones! )

of course, after that low, market will turn for a very long uptrend ( at least 2 years long )
Please apology me for the quality of my chart....but as of now I don't have any other chance..

<<<<<
Excuse me for butting in but I chuckle when I see these longer term forecasts that are sometimes posted here. We have to make it through this week and this month before we can worry about some date over a year away. As for myself, I am only interested in what makes my a/c grow TODAY, not a year or two from now. Why are people so fixated with the Dec 21, 2012 Mayan date for example? Who cares? We all have our problems and daily dramas we're dealing with in the present, we have to get through those long before we worry about some arbitrary date way out in the future. Hey, if this date of yours becomes a low of importance I'll be the first one here to commend you on this magnificent forecast.... but for now, I am interested in WHEN and WHERE this market actually TOPS..... not when it makes a final low.... Cycletimer>>>>>

Edited by cycletimer, 21 January 2010 - 06:52 AM.

Excuse me for butting in but I chuckle when I see these longer term forecasts that are sometimes posted here. We have to make it through this week and this month before we can worry about some date over a year away. As for myself, I am only interested in what makes my a/c grow TODAY, not a year or two from now. Why are people so fixated with the Dec 21, 2012 Mayan date for example? Who cares? We all have our problems and daily dramas we're dealing with in the present, we have to get through those long before we worry about some arbitrary date way out in the future. Hey, if this date of yours becomes a low of importance I'll be the first one here to commend you on this magnificent forecast.... but for now, I am interested in WHEN and WHERE this market actually TOPS..... not when it makes a final low.... Cycletimer>>>>>

While I agree with you on the whole, I disagree a little with the rude mode of this reply. You should also attack the whole EW theory then...............given that it gives long term counts and long term projections. Instead the whole EW theory is largely respected everywhere
(for sure not by me) and almost no-one is used to attack it. Why ? Are its long term forecasts (or even its short term ones) rocket science ?

I fully agree with your words cycletimer... me too I would like to know when this market tops for now... everyone would know... don't you think? but as it would like that, it would be too much easy to trade and gain money ...don't you? I am not looking for the exact top or low of the market....what I would like to emphasize through my words is... as market reached these levels...I guess it is much easier to bet for a downtrend compared to an uptrend... ok? nothing more.... take care ciao

Excuse me for butting in but I chuckle when I see these longer term forecasts that are sometimes posted here. We have to make it through this week and this month before we can worry about some date over a year away. As for myself, I am only interested in what makes my a/c grow TODAY, not a year or two from now. Why are people so fixated with the Dec 21, 2012 Mayan date for example? Who cares? We all have our problems and daily dramas we're dealing with in the present, we have to get through those long before we worry about some arbitrary date way out in the future. Hey, if this date of yours becomes a low of importance I'll be the first one here to commend you on this magnificent forecast.... but for now, I am interested in WHEN and WHERE this market actually TOPS..... not when it makes a final low.... Cycletimer>>>>>

While I agree with you on the whole, I disagree a little with the rude mode of this reply. You should also attack the whole EW theory then...............given that it gives long term counts and long term projections. Instead the whole EW theory is largely respected everywhere
(for sure not by me) and almost no-one is used to attack it. Why ? Are its long term forecasts (or even its short term ones) rocket science ?

My post was not intended to attack this fine Italian Gentleman. I was simply making a point that some of the forecasters (which includes these well-known public e-wavers forecasting DOW 400, Pulleeezzzeee!) make projections far, far into the future when most of us want to make a $ NOW, not in several years. Hell, the cycles haven't even been working lately.... the Bears has been beaten up.... we're all guilty of prematurely calling tops... I am now trying to focus on very short term timing until a definitive top is reached.... when will that be? If it hasn't already topped then my guess is by Jan 22-25th, though Feb 2nd is also a cycle date... see what I mean.... It's friggin' frustrating.

Perhaps some of the frustration is coming from those who try to predict market events which may or may not happen instead of trading trends that are actually happening while reading the market internals that exist now. Just a thought. mm

Yeah, well.

Before we get to 666 or 400 or 0 or whatever, we need to confirm a bearish breakout
of the diagional/wedge on the 60 minute, something we appear to be having a degree
of difficulty doing.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=15&i=p15835075535&a=185146357&r=5977.png

Edited by selecto, 21 January 2010 - 09:28 AM.

My post was not intended to attack this fine Italian Gentleman. I was simply making a point that some of the forecasters (which includes these well-known public e-wavers forecasting DOW 400, Pulleeezzzeee!) make projections far, far into the future when most of us want to make a $ NOW, not in several years. Hell, the cycles haven't even been working lately.... the Bears has been beaten up.... we're all guilty of prematurely calling tops... I am now trying to focus on very short term timing until a definitive top is reached.... when will that be? If it hasn't already topped then my guess is by Jan 22-25th, though Feb 2nd is also a cycle date... see what I mean.... It's friggin' frustrating.

Don' t misunderstand me, please. What matters to me is not what his nationality is. Italy is an abstraction. German speaking minorities in the North, Greek-Albanian in the south. An historical Celtic-Roman land the Northern part, a Greek-Roman land the southern part. Two different things that have been put together because of political reasons that proved to be a failure . That's why it's an abstraction and I' m not defending a compatriot. The sense of my reply would have been thew same whatever part of the world he was from.

My post was not intended to attack this fine Italian Gentleman. I was simply making a point that some of the forecasters (which includes these well-known public e-wavers forecasting DOW 400, Pulleeezzzeee!) make projections far, far into the future when most of us want to make a $ NOW, not in several years. Hell, the cycles haven't even been working lately.... the Bears has been beaten up.... we're all guilty of prematurely calling tops... I am now trying to focus on very short term timing until a definitive top is reached.... when will that be? If it hasn't already topped then my guess is by Jan 22-25th, though Feb 2nd is also a cycle date... see what I mean.... It's friggin' frustrating.

Don' t misunderstand me, please. What matters to me is not what his nationality is. Italy is an abstraction. German speaking minorities in the North, Greek-Albanian in the south. An historical Celtic-Roman land the Northern part, a Greek-Roman land the southern part. Two different things that have been put together because of political reasons that proved to be a failure . That's why it's an abstraction and I' m not defending a compatriot. The sense of my reply would have been thew same whatever part of the world he was from.

I know that Silly! I just threw his Nationality in to be funny and compliment out Italian buddy! He is obviously very passionate about his descent and I applaud that. Now if he were Muslim I wouldn't be so complimentary.....