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One Half primary cycle


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#1 cappy

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Posted 21 January 2010 - 10:09 AM

10 days ago or around there ,I suggested a primary cycle high of 1255 plus or minus 27.14 . I think that yesterday was likely the bottom for the one half primary cycle. Using the same method that was on the chart that mss and others helped me post, Im guessing that yesterdays low on spx will hold. My count has us in week 11 of 20 week cycle. The current high for the crest of the half cycle is 1150. Yesterdays low 1129.25 If 1129.25 holds ? Then we add 1150+1129=2279 I have the start at the 1030 area. 2279-1030=1249 Now this projection overlaps with the first projection. As long as spx 1129 area holds, this overlap increases the chance for a final high of this cycle at 1255 plus or minus 27 The high might come in between jan26 and feb2. The 50week low should arrive before mid april. 38 to 62 week range. A correction of more than 10% would probably lead to a 20% correction. This is a big if, but my long term forecast has been for a high within 3 months of the highs made in 1909 and 1919. Or a high by third week of feb. I expect a lot of volatility this year, so this might not be the high for year.

#2 cappy

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Posted 21 January 2010 - 10:41 AM

1129 didn't last long, maybe 10 minutes after post. If this cycle contracts, as now is possible, then the longer term 50week or 90 and 100yr tops could be showing up. A 37 week low in silver due within 6 weeks of march 30 also indicates reflation trade maybe over.