On 5 day basis

This cannot be a new bear market beginning yet. This should be only a correction. Some charts

Today, we have a price target to 1100-1105 triggered over the next 2 weeks --perhaps ahead of FOMC or a small bounce ahead of FOMC and subsequent sell off on FOMC. There is 5 days of strength lining up at the end of the month, o/s conditions around there can produce a good bounce from Jan 27th. I expect a break below 1105 by the second week of February (10-12) and probably another bounce during February option expirations.

Regardless, we should see lower prices into the second half of February toward 1050-1060 minimum targets once 1105 is broken, ideally Feb 15-22, and mark the final lows or a retest around early March latest, March 11-15. This can produce the cascading Hurst setup that I am currently anticipating by then, the chances are we will see a pretty good rally into spring from there...

Best of luck.

Edited by arbman, 21 January 2010 - 02:08 PM.

BTW, they bought calls from the opening bell today! Unbelievable, this is why this decline has ways to go before all this rampant speculative tendency is completely rooted out of the markets...

BTW, they bought calls from the opening bell today! Unbelievable, this is why this decline has ways to go before all this rampant speculative tendency is completely rooted out of the markets...

Currently I'm only seeing a two week rally from a bottom.... So I'm looking at a bounce soon... Did not see a signature top form to short, but did see massive negative divergence from keeping me go long. Now looking for a short term bottom to buy.... My BDI indicator is now eluding to the downturn starting in earnest in mid-February... This indicator can only be nullified by a decent rise in BDI between now and then....

Barry

i feel like william dafoe in "platoon".. when he knows "charlie' is going to flank him..he saw it in 65 in "ding dang dong" They use the nq's to mask weakness... nq's will feel gap at 1800 and then possibly 1725 this sell off is just like july 2007........

I agree about one thing, it all depends on whether they will rally Apple to 220-230 zone --my price target for several moths now.

That stock has to break down and show that the tech magic is over before NDX breaks down.

I have a feeling that both Google and Apple will be shorts worst nightmare in the very short term, if both companies fail to deliver, we will see a huge carnage. Another possibility is to rally these to shooting stars for a day and then sell off into the euphoria for several weeks...

I favor any set up that keeps the euphoria alive for a persistent decline, otherwise we will have a very quick correction and then continue higher earnest.

I agree about one thing, it all depends on whether they will rally Apple to 220-230 zone --my price target for several moths now.

That stock has to break down and show that the tech magic is over before NDX breaks down.

I have a feeling that both Google and Apple will be shorts worst nightmare in the very short term, if both companies fail to deliver, we will see a huge carnage. Another possibility is to rally these to shooting stars for a day and then sell off into the euphoria for several weeks...

I favor any set up that keeps the euphoria alive for a persistent decline, otherwise we will have a very quick correction and then continue higher earnest.

check out the "three mountain top on apple in oct/nov of 2007....now look at the last three months ..its a three mountain top pattern again..its always the last to go!

Google bombed.

Google bombed.

We could have 5% to 10% more correction to go. I have no long positions and am 99% in cash .

Google bombed.

yep!

apple prob will too

The company said fourth-quarter earnings excluding special items were $6.79 a share. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected earnings of $6.48 a share. Net revenue rose to $4.95 billion, compared with the forecast for net revenue of $4.92 billion. Profit at Google was $1.97 billion, or $6.13 a share, up from $382 million or $1.21 a share in the same period a year earlier.

Google bombed.

And this is the major reason why a lot of us decided that technical trading was far better than trading fundamentally.

Profit was 2 billion dollars in one quarter?!?!? Watch out boys, you're probably next on the list to "give back to the people".

Fib