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Options on the Russell


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#1 gismeu

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Posted 21 January 2010 - 03:49 PM

Hi, at 3:45 EST there have been over 28,000 RUT calls been traded on the strike price 690 and 700 each, and Open Interest is far less. RUT does trade currently at 630 Since we don't know if they were sold or bought, I wonder if there is any forecasting value in this? But any comments appreciated. Thanks, gis
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#2 TechMan

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Posted 21 January 2010 - 06:08 PM

at 3:45 EST there have been over 28,000 RUT calls been traded on the strike price 690 and 700 each, and Open Interest is far less. RUT does trade currently at 630

Since we don't know if they were sold or bought, I wonder if there is any forecasting value in this?
But any comments appreciated.

Thanks, gis

Yes, I did notice that unusual volume spike just before the final leg down.

Unless you're the one(s) who wrote those orders, it's hard to tell what's really going on. But, forensic evidence indciates that these call options weren't written for protections - see intraday BXR (RUT Buywrite Index) chart below. The BXR declined in the final hour of trading. In addition, both the VIX and the VXN had overshot today while the itraday RUT showed signs of oversold.

I guess it's safe to assume that someone with a lota money was expecting a huge rebound in the next day or two. Of course, one isolated occurence does not make it a trend.
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