QID:QLD Ratio Contradicts NDX Selloff

This handy indicator pinpoints very short-term tops (black dots) and bottoms (blue dots) quite accurately. Today, it behaved as though the NDX was just pulling out of the 1/21/2010 short-term bottom, on huge volume, rather than a 3% selloff.

Edited by TechMan, 22 January 2010 - 07:29 PM.

This handy indicator pinpoints very short-term tops (black dots) and bottoms (blue dots) quite accurately.

Today, it behaved as though the NDX was just pulling out of the 1/21/2010 short-term bottom, on huge volume, rather than a 3% selloff.

IT's an ST bottom but only for a while after this it will plunge through.

IT's an ST bottom but only for a while after this it will plunge through.

And, thus, as I'd said, it pinpoints "very short-term" tops and bottoms quite accurately. I haven't changed my bearish bias, but money is money... We'll take what the market's giving us. On 2nd thought, you know I'm getting a little concerned as more people are thinking the same about the imminent rebound. It makes me most comfortable when most posters are thinking the opposite.

IT's an ST bottom but only for a while after this it will plunge through.

And, thus, as I'd said, it pinpoints "very short-term" tops and bottoms quite accurately. I haven't changed my bearish bias, but money is money... We'll take what the market's giving us. On 2nd thought, you know I'm getting a little concerned as more people are thinking the same about the imminent rebound. It makes me most comfortable when most posters are thinking the opposite.

I'm out of everything except two positions on a slight bounce - if the bounce doesn't occur I guess I'm Blanked. I am holding significant positions in CEF and LINE and intend to hold them long term.

Mary Anne

I'm out of everything except two positions on a slight bounce - if the bounce doesn't occur I guess I'm Blanked. I am holding significant positions in CEF and LINE and intend to hold them long term.

Mary Anne

I used to own CEF (Central Fund of Canada), all the way from a tad below $5, until I had finally sold it on that 2nd bounce that broke thru $13 again back in July 2008. For very long term investment, it should be O.K., but I'm just not bullish on Gold or Silver right now. I'm shorting GDX (Gold Miners).

As I had posted previously, I was looking to see if it'd bounce off the lower span of the ICHIMOKU Cloud again. And, when it had failed to do so 2 days in a row, I pulled the trigger on the 2nd day, Jan. 19.

You might want to consider writing some call options on these "significant" long term positions to minimize further downside risks.



This was the chart that I had posted a few days ago...

Edited by TechMan, 23 January 2010 - 01:16 AM.