I don't think this is just a correction.

In Nov, the market announced the Dubai debt issues and the bull market corrected. Following that, everyone forgets about it and the Market continues rallying into early Jan this year and leave behind what they called the "Dubai Scare". Is anyone expecting this drop to be just a correction? Following this we rally to test new highs and call this episode the "Obama Scare"? I think this is for real and the off loading is very real.

I am staying a bear until I see ES drop below 1000. Saying that, I will be extremely conservative with any longs for bounce, tightening all stops, and liberal with with shorts. I believe this is major off-loading in market where bounces will be extremely weak. Monday itself should tell a big story.

Good trading to all!

In Nov, the market announced the Dubai debt issues and the bull market corrected. Following that, everyone forgets about it and the Market continues rallying into early Jan this year and leave behind what they called the "Dubai Scare". Is anyone expecting this drop to be just a correction? Following this we rally to test new highs and call this episode the "Obama Scare"? I think this is for real and the off loading is very real.

I am staying a bear until I see ES drop below 1000. Saying that, I will be extremely conservative with any longs for bounce, tightening all stops, and liberal with with shorts. I believe this is major off-loading in market where bounces will be extremely weak. Monday itself should tell a big story.

Good trading to all!

The WHOLE RALLY UP IS NOTHING BUT A BEAR RALLY..... Bulls get real about it!!! Where is the fundamental to back the bull run? Nothing at all. There should be an occassional bounce here and there but no justification for many of the stock it's just another 2007 style of collapse awaiting. An accident waiting to happen. When bulls jump on bear's back. it's fine when the are hibernating but WHEN they wake up... a blood will start for sure... You will see dow hover about here and there about push back to maybe the highs then.... the water fall will happen. Maybe 10.600 on the dow, 1130s on S and P and watch it... slide back to low 9000s When had happen to nikkei will happen to Dow. They start first. nikeei when back to 10,500 after breaking shaprly to 10,200 likely dow will get back to 10,500s... then start breaking back to 9000s maybe 8000s by then.

I would trade the technicals as the 64-68 week dma is still pointing up and it is the backbone of the dominant cycle. It will take several weeks, if not months to turn it. I am not interested in new highs though until we actually rally... I do not think we will see sub-1000 for too long either just yet, if we do... If we trigger the cascade up, we may see as high as 1180-1200 in spring.

[ref: 1, 2, 3]

I would trade the technicals as the 64-68 week dma is still pointing up and it is the backbone of the dominant cycle. It will take several weeks, if not months to turn it. I am not interested in new highs though until we actually rally... I do not think we will see sub-1000 for too long either just yet, if we do... If we trigger the cascade up, we may see as high as 1180-1200 in spring.

[ref: 1, 2, 3]

Thanks for sharing Arbman. I appreciate your work a lot. Just a week ago, I'd be happy with just a correction, similar fashion to Nov's correction and aim at the possible highs(bull mode). But this pullback, the way I see suffered a cut by the fundamentals. Which leaves me waiting for blood to spill dry before my sentiments change. Good luck to your trades! I'll be looking out for exits on Sunday night and re-enter either pre-cash or early opening hours.

Edited by melonseed, 23 January 2010 - 04:29 AM.