OCC weekly premiums and $-amounts traded

I don't have a chart, but week after week, there is more and more believers and speculative positions piling up, we have a minor 4 wk cycle low coming up around April 22-23, right after the expirations. They are shooting higher now, but most likely the equity options will not be paid with an high premium on Friday. Such a sell off would show, whether it was only a mark down for expirations or something bigger, the volatility range has to certainly expand quite a bit for anything of substance to develop (to the downside).

So, my thinking is any sell off into the expirations and a consolidation for the following week may be still a good --but probably last-- buying opportunity for the month end, of course if we get it... Then we will be looking for the 16 wk cycle low due in later May, I think any high in early May is a good short entry, especially if the bullish sentiment continues to soar as it has been. I do not think I am deviating much from this analysis in that regard.

I expect the pull back into May to be very sharp and deceptive to punish the excessive speculation --if it persists until then, perhaps an exact replica of last years May-June trading actually may be in the making. Some of the key moving averages I watch will also turn up in early May, they should certainly generate a push into summer. I think a June high may happen once again for a sell off into July. However unlike last year, there is no major cycle low due in July this year, the most significant lows are due in mid-May and then mid-September according to the current cyclicality.

So, the summer months will be either topping or blowing off further, so I tend to think there will be some sort of higher highs happening in summer, especially given the relatively calm nature of the volatility, it should take weeks for any significant distribution and sell off to develop. The energy started to lead more and more, so I guess Fed's intention is clear for the summer too...

Best of luck.

I have a buy signal although be it week on May 7th and a sell on June 5th.... My guess is that we will go down into May then rally then Fall.... Based on my target analysis this is possible... Barry

I have a buy signal although be it week on May 7th and a sell on June 5th.... My guess is that we will go down into May then rally then Fall.... Based on my target analysis this is possible...

Barry

I am having about the same dates are you using monthly trade cycles?

I have a buy signal although be it week on May 7th and a sell on June 5th.... My guess is that we will go down into May then rally then Fall.... Based on my target analysis this is possible...

Barry

I am having about the same dates are you using monthly trade cycles?

Baltic Dry Index Formula

I have a buy signal although be it week on May 7th and a sell on June 5th.... My guess is that we will go down into May then rally then Fall.... Based on my target analysis this is possible...

Barry

I am having about the same dates are you using monthly trade cycles?

Baltic Dry Index Formula

I did use some of it. Last year it was spot on all the way from march 2009(the lows were also predicted by the bdi). It also foretold that the june drop was a prelude to a new high, but it not working this time round!

If Monday's gap up fails, it will sell down this week.