Are trades stated on TT real?

I know by posting this I will open up a pandora box but it has puzzled me for quite a while. I keep seeing the same folks shorting and losing money. Even if there is a 100% hedge (which some post and I don't believe), it will be a complete waste of time. I am not attacking anyone in particular but I am thinking if it is because these traders deliberately post a short position when they are really long. Purpose? I don't know. Would anyone be kind to advise? Thanks.

Trading is like poker. You can get lucky for a long time and think you're a good poker player. Alteratively, you can lose for a long time despite making high expected value plays. There are documented instances of professionals playing hundres of thousands of hands with an expectation of making 6 or 7 figures but actually losing 6 or 7 figures.

Edited by CHAx, 13 April 2010 - 08:27 PM.

Does not matter one skinny whit. There are about 2.64 gazillion trades made every day, so the importance of what a dozen guys in a chat room are doing is sub-minimal. Now, you got a trade, got a technical reason fort it, got a window, got a time frame, got a target, got a stop, maybe I start to care. Unless you are Jesus, or Paul Tudor Jones or somebody, posting in disguise.

Edited by selecto, 13 April 2010 - 08:29 PM.

Hopefully through time it'll lie itself out of disguise.

Trading is like poker. You can get lucky for a long time and think you're a good poker player. Alteratively, you can lose for a long time despite making high expected value plays.

There are documented instances of professionals playing hundres of thousands of hands with an expectation of making 6 or 7 figures but actually losing 6 or 7 figures.

I am thinking that even for a good poker player, the person will mostly likely cut loss after a number of losing games. Otherwise, it would appear to be a gambling problem. Hmmm... then again most of us on this board are speculators right? Are speculators equivalent to gamblers?

Now, you got a trade, got a technical reason fort it,
got a window, got a time frame, got a target, got
a stop, maybe I start to care.

even with a valid technical reason, once wrong is wrong. How many times would one continue to stick to a faulty model?

Trading is like poker. You can get lucky for a long time and think you're a good poker player. Alteratively, you can lose for a long time despite making high expected value plays.

There are documented instances of professionals playing hundres of thousands of hands with an expectation of making 6 or 7 figures but actually losing 6 or 7 figures.

I am thinking that even for a good poker player, the person will mostly likely cut loss after a number of losing games. Otherwise, it would appear to be a gambling problem. Hmmm... then again most of us on this board are speculators right? Are speculators equivalent to gamblers?

Poker is a skill game (unlike any other game in the casino). However, there are luck elements to the game. A pro makes money by taking advantage of the statistical probabilities of certain outcomes. In other words, it is not gambling over a large enough sample size. Even with a huge sample size, say a couple hundred thousand hands (the equivalent of a couple years worth of play in a live poker room) a player can be extremely "unlucky" and still lose despite having a *huge* statistical edge.

My point is that even if a trader makes terrible decisions, he could win for quite some time on average despite making poor decisions... or vice versa. Just because someone's trades have or have not worked, the success or failure are not necessarily indicative of their skill. Only someone with a huge ego could think that. Much like a poker novice could hit a 2% chance on the river to make a winning hand and believe he is "good" at poker.

Edited by CHAx, 13 April 2010 - 10:29 PM.

There are very short term traders who will/can lose 8 out of 10 trades, small amounts, and still win very big on 2 trades and make money. There are many variations of this, most only post the opening trade and fail to post the closing, most but not all. Some post both ends. Some - post to get a reaction from other posters. These are easily spotted. mss

caveat emptor. on the internet no one knows you are a dog.

And here I thought you are all just monkeys.

Edited by milbank, 14 April 2010 - 08:29 AM.