No escape velocity here

NBER hesitates to call recession over. Small business optimism ain't there. The majority of jobs are created by small business. Intel's glorious report notwithstanding, I find it hard to see how businesses will reach any sort of "escape velocity" to kickstart employment increases of any kind. Feb and March are aberrations since something like 600,000 census worker slots were created. Insider buying at public corporations hit record new lows this past month. Negative divergence of ever declining volume since Mar 09 on all exchanges continues to decrease even more. The National Federation of Independent Business Index of Small Business Optimism lost 1.2 points in March, falling to 86.8. The persistence of index readings below 90 is unprecedented in survey history. “The March reading is very low and headed in the wrong direction,” said Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB chief economist. “Something isn’t sitting well with small business owners. Poor sales and uncertainty continue to overwhelm any other good news about the economy.” The index has posted 18 consecutive monthly readings below 90. In March, nine of the 10 Index components fell or were unchanged from February’s not-so-great readings. Employment While actual job reductions may have halted, plans to create new jobs remain weak. Over the next three months, 17 percent plan to reduce employment (down one point), and 15 percent plan to create new jobs (up two points), yielding a seasonally adjusted net negative 2 percent of owners planning to create new jobs, weaker than February and still more firms planning to cut jobs than planning to add. Capital Spending The frequency of reported capital outlays over the past six months fell two points to 45 percent of all firms, one point above the 35-year record low reached most recently in December 2009. Sales and Inventories The net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher nominal sales in the past three months improved 1 point to a net negative 25 percent. Widespread price cutting continued to contribute to reports of lower nominal sales. The net percent of owners expecting real sales gains lost three points, falling to a net negative 3 percent of all owners, seasonally adjusted. Inflation The weak economy continued to put downward pressure on prices. Eleven percent of the owners reported raising average selling prices, but 29 percent reported average price reductions. Earnings In March, earnings trends declined with a net negative 43 percent of owners reporting positive profit trends.