I went back all the way to 2000

There was not one instance where qqqq had an RSI of 80 on the daily chart and did not have a 10% correction very shortly or right after. There have not been that many times that this has happened though. Usually you would have a correction of at least 3 4 percent before we got so overbought. But if history is our guide and I think it should be then we should have a substancial drop in the indexes very shortly.

But it's different this time.

But it's different this time.

I am calling a top right here. qqqq should be under $45 in a few weeks. Of course it could break over $50 tomorrow just for kicks and giggles but will close lower than we are right now. We are nearing the pinnicle of this market. Exact opposite of last years bottom. Watch for the turn in the next 20 minutes maybe.

With enormous amount of liquidity, 3000 on NDX is not impossible.

With enormous amount of liquidity, 3000 on NDX is not impossible.

I would say at this stage it is impossible. Maybe in a few years sure. We need to fall. All the money is in the bank already.

We should either have a huge drop overnight or open flat tomorrow and stay flat to slightly up until about 2 PM when we crater down. It will not be profit taking, it will be the next leg down starting.

We should either have a huge drop overnight or open flat tomorrow and stay flat to slightly up until about 2 PM when we crater down. It will not be profit taking, it will be the next leg down starting.

Why are you so sure, if I may ask ? I am in the bearish camp as you, but not sure it will be tomorrow. Why your statement ?

We should either have a huge drop overnight or open flat tomorrow and stay flat to slightly up until about 2 PM when we crater down. It will not be profit taking, it will be the next leg down starting.

Why are you so sure, if I may ask ? I am in the bearish camp as you, but not sure it will be tomorrow. Why your statement ?

I am sure because it has happened everytime in the last 15 years. Of couse nothing is 100% sure, but I would say that there is a 90% chance we fall 10% in teh coming weeks. We had an initial top like 2 weeks ago, then consolidated and now we have a second top and it is higher than it would normally go. Which usually means the drop will be harder and deeper.

We should either have a huge drop overnight or open flat tomorrow and stay flat to slightly up until about 2 PM when we crater down. It will not be profit taking, it will be the next leg down starting.

Why are you so sure, if I may ask ? I am in the bearish camp as you, but not sure it will be tomorrow. Why your statement ?

I am sure because it has happened everytime in the last 15 years. Of couse nothing is 100% sure, but I would say that there is a 90% chance we fall 10% in teh coming weeks. We had an initial top like 2 weeks ago, then consolidated and now we have a second top and it is higher than it would normally go. Which usually means the drop will be harder and deeper.

stocktrender. imho, picking tops never works in the long run. if u want to short wait for the first break then take a position. or with a strong uptrend it's better to use sharp pullbacks to add to long positions.

We should either have a huge drop overnight or open flat tomorrow and stay flat to slightly up until about 2 PM when we crater down. It will not be profit taking, it will be the next leg down starting.

Why are you so sure, if I may ask ? I am in the bearish camp as you, but not sure it will be tomorrow. Why your statement ?

I am sure because it has happened everytime in the last 15 years. Of couse nothing is 100% sure, but I would say that there is a 90% chance we fall 10% in teh coming weeks. We had an initial top like 2 weeks ago, then consolidated and now we have a second top and it is higher than it would normally go. Which usually means the drop will be harder and deeper.

go test your finding on a 20 year basis. I bet you your results will be so so. Form a trading system out of it, how do you exit? Things that are simple like this dont work as well as you imply. I have tested as many technical situations like these as possible and there is no strong system. If you think hedge funds havent ran models testing overbought using an RSI on the nasdaq your incorrect.