I guess while the huge price changes was OK while crashing...

Perhaps the financial distress was overblown back then a bit too where companies without even a debt in their balance sheet were taken to cleaners, now that the pain is absorbed by the beloved Fed and the bill nicely handed off to the US taxpayers, it is all back to business usual? I don't know I guess one has to be able to see this obscene bullish sentiment as the opposite of the crash at the very same level where everything has begun in 2008... Just pointing out the obvious here, as everyone unloaded back then, they are just reloading now... Not that I would add any new positions here, but then do not please make me explain how foolish it sounds to sell short here, BUT right here!!! Perhaps in a week after the excitement fades a bit and it creates a buying void that can usually suck the prices down, but do not count on that happening this week much, I guess... The 16 wk cycle low is real and it is coming in May, probably the real void will happen in about 3-4 weeks as all of the good news with this parabolic rally suckers in everyone and there is really nobody left to buy, even Fed... There is always the foreigners though who come right when you think everyone bought, some of this rally is because them, clearly. 1 Euro is not worth the paper it is printed on, just like 1 USD, people just found out; good morning darling, running away from somewhere? Here, let me sell you some more worthless paper for your worthless paper and a little bit real asset you may left under the mattress, got gold? Best of luck.

when i watched Rick Santelli this morning i fell out of my chair laughing...i love the guy to death but his sentiment speaks volumes for the tone of the mkt right now in late feb of 2009 remember him just bashing OBAMA on live tv ( go to u tube) then today he is a glittee and talking about how HEY THIS IS STILL AMERICA AND 90% OF PEOPLE ARE STILL EMPLOYED!!!! classic stuff

You guys know I posted here the paradigm shift post where I turned quite bullish. I am sharing something private here... I knew this rally was going to be very very unusual when one of my clients sent me this a few months ago in response to that message...

whoever wrote this paragraph is a fargin idiot. Anybody who believes the US is about to soar is a fargin idiot. 700 banks on the troubled list. Bankrupt states. Bankrupt economy. No jobs. Stupidest piece of crap writing I have read in a long time. The whole fargin thing is tanking. Any stupid fool can see that.

-------- Original Message --------
Subject: Paradigm shift?
From: arbman
Date: Wed, February 24, 2010 10:08 am
To: xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

US looks awesome compared to Europe now... No bashing, this is just economic picture, US may have all the unemployment and debt, but Europe is bankrupt in comparison... US Treasuries are headed higher as European debt is doomed, USD is headed higher as Euro is doomed, US Equities are headed higher as European markets will undoubtedly suffer or underperform... I don't know... In my measures, Euro is headed to 1.16-1.17 again. The last time Euro looked so weak was 1996... US soared for 4 years thereafter with the deregulation magic of Greenspan (translation: easy money), now we have a new wizard in town; Heli-Ben (translation: overtime in printing)... Fundamentally, Ben can inflate all he wants as US Treasuries will be stable, USD will be stable and the equity markets are doing better and better with every pump... One would want to be bearish with the soaring delinquencies and foreclosures in January and about this depressed economy, but I r-e-a-l-l-y can't... The leadership in tech will come back in spring as the seasonal weakness in tech will be over shortly from here and a lot of easy money to follow... The banks and industrials have been already outperforming, the materials are slowly lagging, these are great news, the investors may be getting ready to go into the right growth assets... I still think we will see the completion of the major cycle down into early March with some more downside, but a miracle may be in the making for spring that may last much longer than anyone predicts for 2010...

Take the rally from the lows, mirror the chart in both horizontal and vertical lines, then compare the recent rally to the mirrored image (ie compare the parabolic decline with the recent parabolic rise). End results of parabolic rises are the same as parabolic declines, but this one hasn't quite gone parabolic yet. It may still do so, but if it is, its in the early stages, not the late stages.

there's 4 trillion in mortgages held by FNM/FRE. 1.25 trillion MBS and 175 billion GSE debt held by Bernanke. Another 8 trillion MBS and GSE debt held by investors.

http://www.sifma.org...Outstanding.pdf

Edited by Data, 14 April 2010 - 09:14 PM.

Anyhow, perhaps the miracle goes much further than anyone predicts, but given the extremely high sentiment readings, we are probably getting closer to a high of importance... Sell in May and go away?

"Miracle." That expression reminds me of "A New Paradigm" of a decade or so ago.

What's happening now reminds me of the recent retail sales numbers versus sales tax revenue, a disconnect.

The old saying, "The market is not the economy" is not to be discounted nonetheless, there is a major disconnect between the markets and the economy which will continue only as long as essentially free money is pumped into the economy. Sooner or later Newton's Third Law will kick in and the bill will come due over time on this artificial insemination to the system. Or, if it continues long enough, we enter a "Weimar" situation. I have for some time and still do expect it to end after the mid-term elections.

There was a similar run-up after the crash of '29 due to government monetary intervention with a similar result to the stock market.

“The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern…American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity.”
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover’s National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930

The "smart money" that had gotten out before the crash of '29 got back in.

Then came the drop into 1932 and a decade of destruction and destitution. It took a world war and then Bretton Woods re-regulating the planet's economies to begin to get us out of it only this time it's not going to be the U.S. will be in a far different financial situation compared to it's economic superiority over other western nations at Bretton Woods in July 1944.

Edited by milbank, 14 April 2010 - 10:13 PM.

Anyhow, perhaps the miracle goes much further than anyone predicts, but given the extremely high sentiment readings, we are probably getting closer to a high of importance... Sell in May and go away?

this could be an expo squeeze to remember...

Bernanke has released a lot of the burdens that the bank were holding. Now they have the money back to move the market.

"Miracle." That expression reminds me of "A New Paradigm" of a decade or so ago.

What's happening now reminds me of the recent retail sales numbers versus sales tax revenue, a disconnect.

The old saying, "The market is not the economy" is not to be discounted nonetheless, there is a major disconnect between the markets and the economy which will continue only as long as essentially free money is pumped into the economy. Sooner or later Newton's Third Law will kick in and the bill will come due over time on this artificial insemination to the system. Or, if it continues long enough, we enter a "Weimar" situation. I have for some time and still do expect it to end after the mid-term elections.

There was a similar run-up after the crash of '29 due to government monetary intervention with a similar result to the stock market.

“The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern…American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity.”
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover’s National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930

The "smart money" that had gotten out before the crash of '29 got back in.

Then came the drop into 1932 and a decade of destruction and destitution. It took a world war and then Bretton Woods re-regulating the planet's economies to begin to get us out of it only this time it's not going to be the U.S. will be in a far different financial situation compared to it's economic superiority over other western nations at Bretton Woods in July 1944.

Mil,
You may like this blogsot. The same old saw!

http://newsfrom1930.blogspot.com/

L