NHs

I think IT will probably post and I don't want to put words in his mouth. However, we did get a 'confirmatory' surge in NHs yesterday in just about every major index I follow. This confirms the run as the NHs hit their highest level in several years and suggests any top of any duration likely is further out time wise.

Roger that.

It does help to look under the hood a bit...

I think IT will probably post and I don't want to put words in his mouth. However, we did get a 'confirmatory' surge in NHs yesterday in just about every major index I follow. This confirms the run as the NHs hit their highest level in several years and suggests any top of any duration likely is further out time wise.

Yes, we did get a nice surge in the New Highs yesterday. Without looking though, we were probably 40-50 SPX points above the last spot were the new highs surged. So I'm still pondering this now, whether it flashed an all clear, or whether it was alot of weakness up until yesterday when they dragged some of these stocks to new highs.

Chances are though that even if we do react down now, and this is no prediction that we will, we eventually will come back to test the highs or go higher, at which point the new highs will be important.

IT

If the 16 wk cycle low will produce noticeable volatility, next week we should see a sell off to 4 wk cycle low from the most recent 8 wk cycle that produced this blow off since March 27 or so. In that sense a first sell off, if it happens early next week or Friday afternoon will reveal any weakness, but I do also expect it to be bought to the new highs and I also do agree that it may be the high to sell in early May. The next rally may not be as speculative as this one in options, it will mean that the buying is getting depleted and the buying void is ready to suck them down to 16 wk cycle low.