Let's face it, picking a top makes MORE sense(profit) now

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX:$CPCE&p=D&b=4&g=0&i=p93669785957&a=168797393&r=374.png

Not my charts, just sharing.

The first sell off will be still bought imo, so we should see a floor at 1200 now or gap, so it is possible to rally higher into 1220s before a 30-40 points scary sell off. In 2005, Intel marked the top with a gap down though around 1200, we had completely the opposite this time, the market blew off above 1200... However, the sentiment traces are the same, extreme bullishness...

This market feels like the early 2004 top, it took a long time to top and we had several higher highs despite the excessive bullishness, so one needs to be patient. We are probably headed into a long consolidation where Fed will eventually announce rate hikes and the equities will see something worse than the January correction into fall...

I am pretty sure Fed will not do anything until they see a lot of jobs growth, in a sense probably the LT bonds will not collapse much either until USD really breaks down, I don't think any of these will happen immediately...

I still think this will play out.

Edited by arbman, 15 April 2010 - 01:17 PM.

the bottom line is FEAR is a stronger emotion than greed so a put call ratio at 1.35 shows extreme fear and you usually get an immediate reaction to that sort of extreme... Greed on the other hand is not as severe and even though these put call ratios are OFF the charts..it still takes time to form tops...

i think R/R is so skewed it is not worth shorting right now... till we see a nice red candle day , i desist from shorting.. market can still melt up to 1250-1300..