IN CYCLES WE TRUST

I believe in 10/20/40 year cycles amongst others.

There seems little doubt we are deja vuing the great depression IMO, so looking back 80 years seems reasonable.

The Aussie market which I trade, as well as SPX, made its high on April 15th.

So here is a 1930 chart with a few dates marked. Sorry once again as they are DD/MM/YYYY format.

So you are saying that we are just now starting the 30's drop and what happened from 07-09(50% drop) was just rumblings ? Another 50% from April puts us at 600 S&P.

So you are saying that we are just now starting the 30's drop
and what happened from 07-09(50% drop) was just rumblings ?

Another 50% from April puts us at 600 S&P.

Sounds good to me.

I expect we have years to go to complete this bear and am looking for July 5th 2013.

I think that may be a fine date for Australia but I think the US will have to suffer even longer.

There is no way this can end well IMO, and that is a technical view without regard to any fundamental analysis which IMO is even more pessimistic.

To better understand stock market forecasting, you need to read the Ghost of Christmas's to Come portion of Dickens A Christmas Carol. This the future that may unfold if we do not change our wicked ways.

So you are saying that we are just now starting the 30's drop
and what happened from 07-09(50% drop) was just rumblings ?

Another 50% from April puts us at 600 S&P.

Sounds good to me.

I expect we have years to go to complete this bear and am looking for July 5th 2013.

I think that may be a fine date for Australia but I think the US will have to suffer even longer.

There is no way this can end well IMO, and that is a technical view without regard to any fundamental analysis which IMO is even more pessimistic.

300+ up days for the Dow only happen in bear markets and 400+ days are quickly retraced to the gap so SPX 1110.88 will be filled in a blink then probably a bounce the down hard IMO.

To better understand stock market forecasting, you need to read the Ghost of Christmas's to Come portion of Dickens A Christmas Carol. This the future that may unfold if we do not change our wicked ways.

Douglas

Not sure if you are having me on or you really have a message.

I'm not into evil ways, but recognise that human nature is what it is.

Sadly it is the nature of governments that amplify that aspect.

I am optimistic in the sense that I believe that "this too will change", but things probably have to get worse before they get better.

So you are saying that we are just now starting the 30's drop
and what happened from 07-09(50% drop) was just rumblings ?

Another 50% from April puts us at 600 S&P.

CLK

As far as rumblings go you need to think about the size of moves.

Yes the 2007/9 move was lengthier that the 1929 Sep/Nov crash and the the 2009/10 rally was longer that the 1929/30 rally BUT the 2007/9 decline was similar to the 1929 crash in price and the 2009/10 rally was similar to the 1929/30 rally in price.

Remember that there was a terrorist attack on Wall Street on September 16, 1920. Followed by a bear market, a bull market, a bubble, a crash and the Great Depression. As Mark Twain has been quoted as saying: "History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme."

So you are saying that we are just now starting the 30's drop
and what happened from 07-09(50% drop) was just rumblings ?

Another 50% from April puts us at 600 S&P.

CLK

As far as rumblings go you need to think about the size of moves.

Yes the 2007/9 move was lengthier that the 1929 Sep/Nov crash and the the 2009/10 rally was longer that the 1929/30 rally BUT the 2007/9 decline was similar to the 1929 crash in price and the 2009/10 rally was similar to the 1929/30 rally in price.

Voltaire, i am also i believer in cycles, especially the longer ones as they reflect human behavior and human nature, and as you said in an earlier post. what has been shall be,there is no new thing under the sun.
i appreceate your input on this board.thanks!

picses.

Voltaire,

I think the Dow/Gold chart supports your work, the chart
stops near the 08 lows and did not even hit the lower green channel,
bear market should not end until lower exp. wedge target.


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