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Capitulation everywhere, wow!


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#1 arbman

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Posted 19 May 2010 - 09:46 AM

Everyone is buying huge amounts of puts here with the expectation of a break of 1100 and follow through (crash?), Fed should be able to engineer a very sharp squeeze with these readings, ideally after breaking 1100. Today and tomorrow are the ideal nominal 16 wk cycle low...

#2 qqqqtrdr

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Posted 19 May 2010 - 09:52 AM

Everyone is buying huge amounts of puts here with the expectation of a break of 1100 and follow through (crash?), Fed should be able to engineer a very sharp squeeze with these readings, ideally after breaking 1100. Today and tomorrow are the ideal nominal 16 wk cycle low...


OEX Put/Call is under 1 again today... Institutions are buying on weakness... Too many people looking for a crash..... Euro is holding so far today.... We should end the day a little up.... CBOE Put/Call is at 1.92 after an hour of trading. Very high....

Barry

#3 dasein

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Posted 19 May 2010 - 09:56 AM

a lot of index calls BTO in open at ISE
best,
klh

#4 SixSigma

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Posted 19 May 2010 - 11:34 AM

Everyone is buying huge amounts of puts here with the expectation of a break of 1100 and follow through (crash?), Fed should be able to engineer a very sharp squeeze with these readings, ideally after breaking 1100. Today and tomorrow are the ideal nominal 16 wk cycle low...


Arb,

What are you looking for, just a ST or a IT trade. Are you in?

Edited by reddybuild, 19 May 2010 - 11:34 AM.


#5 arbman

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Posted 19 May 2010 - 01:33 PM

I think we are getting close to an ST low at least, for a week or two. I looked for a complete flush today or tomorrow, but it seems like people are getting quite bearish in anticipation of it. It basically means most already sold and aware, even looking to profit from it, we may not sell further and instead bounce up to 1150 for now, Fed should be able to inject imho. My option model actually projects 6-8% higher, but we do not have to go to neutral, so 4-5% bounce will do, 1150 is the overhead resistance for now... The internals are also holding up today a bit better, index and sector leaderships are also not too bad.

Edited by arbman, 19 May 2010 - 01:34 PM.