Let the retail west coast lunch panic hour play out

Nothing like a good sell-off when thousands of retail log on during lunch to SELL SELL SELL. But tomorrow morning maybe a good time to buy. I'd like to see under 200 MA too, just to see if the crash pundits can actually do it.

I would say that ES tested Friday's, after Thursday crash low. This might be a good time to cover and wait up for the next opportunity. Plus the Euro is making some rather dramatic moves.

There was quite a bit of Panic in the air this morning..... Fundamental analysis of the market might be meaningless in this decline. The bottoming signals are there to support a decent bounce. The question is how will the large brokerage houses direct the markets.... They have been driving lower and lower... Did we have capitulation last week? That is debatable. Did we have some this morning... CBOE Put/Call eluded to that.... Barry

I'd like better prices to add, but I added calls at 1100..

If this plays out like 1997, we are headed to like SPX 1200 ish within the month.

I posted a chart of 1997 a while back. Sorta kinda looks like it, no? Look between nov to mid nov..

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$INDU&p=D&st=1997-01-01&en=1998-01-01&i=t93709399967&r=1404.png

Edited by dcengr, 19 May 2010 - 02:32 PM.

I see no similarity between 97 and now in terms of the preceeding years.

I see no similarity between 97 and now in terms of the preceeding years.

No, this is a ST fractal, based on sniplit of days vs. years.

The crash in 1997, asian financial crisis has a similar looking super mega spike down then recovery.

I have NO IDEA if it will play out like this. I'm not hanging around holding these calls to 1200 either. All I know is market is pretty over sold and this is one possibility if EU or uncle Ben does some intervention.

I still think we're in a bear market and I'll be watching breadth carefully on this way up, if it goes up, that is.

Fundamental analysis of the market might be meaningless in this decline.

qqqqtrdr - You (You and SemiBizz) have been saying it's really been a function of the Forex for quite a few days. And, I've been meaning to tell you that's a good recognition, but it's been busy at the trading desk. Everything else would become relevant again once the Forex finds its equlibrium.

Good work, Barry.

Fundamental analysis of the market might be meaningless in this decline.

qqqqtrdr - You (You and SemiBizz) have been saying it's really been a function of the Forex for quite a few days. And, I've been meaning to tell you that's a good recognition, but it's been busy at the trading desk. Everything else would become relevant again once the Forex finds its equlibrium.

Good work, Barry.

It's all about fundamentals imo...

The adjustment of earnings downward in the second half due to a strong dollar...

Not to mention the fact that Europe will have a double dip, which makes PE shrink since earnings going forward (2011 and beyond) will possiblity be stagnant and might shrink...

Earnings projections for 2010 were between 80 and 90 on the SPX, they will need to be adjusted down and price goes accordingly...

Fundamental analysis of the market might be meaningless in this decline.

qqqqtrdr - You (You and SemiBizz) have been saying it's really been a function of the Forex for quite a few days. And, I've been meaning to tell you that's a good recognition, but it's been busy at the trading desk. Everything else would become relevant again once the Forex finds its equlibrium.

Good work, Barry.

It's all about fundamentals imo...

The adjustment of earnings downward in the second half due to a strong dollar...

But you got the fundamentals all wrong...

Which are the 3 largest U.S. trading partners? And, take a look at their currencies. Strong Dollar???

And, don't forget the imminent Chinese Yuan revaluation.

Fundamental analysis of the market might be meaningless in this decline.

qqqqtrdr - You (You and SemiBizz) have been saying it's really been a function of the Forex for quite a few days. And, I've been meaning to tell you that's a good recognition, but it's been busy at the trading desk. Everything else would become relevant again once the Forex finds its equlibrium.

Good work, Barry.

It's all about fundamentals imo...

The adjustment of earnings downward in the second half due to a strong dollar...

But you got the fundamentals all wrong...

Which are the 3 largest U.S. trading partners? And, take a look at their currencies. Strong Dollar???

And, don't forget the imminent Chinese Yuan revaluation.

UK, France and Germany are all in the top 10...

Tech, don't ignore the fact that double dip in Europe is likely to hurt growth around the globe...

BTW I'm flat...