Amazing Bullishness

This is truly amazing: After all these downward gyrations, there are still 8 bulls and 2 bears among the top ten consensus timers over at Timer Digest. I guess it's because this long bull run from March 2009 to April 2010 has conditioned lots of people to disbelieve the bear case. You were rewarded for your stubborn bullishness over the past 13 months, so why not continue to be doggedly bullish, right? Isn't that what Pavlov's experiments showed about conditioned reflexes?

The joke was on Pavlov. The dogs coordinated their salivating, then watched with glee as he scrambled for his notebook.

The joke was on Pavlov. The dogs coordinated their salivating, then watched
with glee as he scrambled for his notebook.

Yep. Saw the movie with Dustin Hoffman and Willie Nelson : "Wag the Doc."

Edited by IYB, 19 May 2010 - 06:47 PM.

I think it was "Wag the Duck"?

As I said Friday:
"Last Friday's Gloom replaced by slobers?
Pavlov's dog can't wait for Monday's bell"

(EDIT:Breaking news tonight) AAII Bullish RATIO GOES UP! From 50% to 55%!

AAII: (as of 5/19/2010) 55%
Tickersense: 05/21/10 60%

Thrift S Plan: 05/21/10 59%
AAII: (as of 5/12/2010) 50%
Tickersense: 05/14/10 57%

Thrift S Plan: 05/14/10 40%
AAII: (as of 5/5/2010) 58%
Tickersense: 05/07/10 55%

Thrift S Plan: 05/07/10 72%
AAII: (as of 4/28/2010) 59%
04/30/10 Tickersense: 75%

AAII should be interesting tonight.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 20 May 2010 - 12:16 AM.

As I said last weekend:

RD, to figure out if it will make a 4th you have to move to lower timeframes like the hourly to gage how the VIX is doing, right now for instance my adjusted VIX indicators are all rolling over telling me we should see a strong bounce early next week, pehaps even at the open......a massive short covering rally will be the fuel along with the usual Monday AM coordinated interventions across the planet. Not to mention wave counts and other stuff....

My concern is that seems to be a consensus opinion.
I expected many shorts to cover near the close Friday as a Pavlov response to last Monday's gap up singe.
My RSI systems chart show we are nowhere oversold as last week. LINK
Of course that doesn't rule out a rally.

Here's a post I was working on:

Last Friday's Gloom replaced by slobers?
Pavlov's dog can't wait for Monday's bell

"Monday before May expiration: DOW up 19 of last 21" Traders Almanac
Wednesday 19th Marked with a bull
Friday: May Expiration UP 5 of last 8.

RSI System chart = not bottomed
Mark Cook tick relived (July type lower low?) LINK
NYMO headed down
CPC shows turn back up
VIX 3 days of higher highs

RD - how 'bout showing the Sentimentrader readings? I seem to have lost my bookmark. TIA, D

PS = Sentiment is reminding me once again of Yogi Berra's "Nobody goes there anymore; it's always too crowded" as the position poll above shows everyone is bullish because the put/call ratio is so high.

Edited by IYB, 19 May 2010 - 07:34 PM.

This is truly amazing: After all these downward gyrations, there are still 8 bulls and 2 bears among the top ten consensus timers over at Timer Digest. I guess it's because this long bull run from March 2009 to April 2010 has conditioned lots of people to disbelieve the bear case. You were rewarded for your stubborn bullishness over the past 13 months, so why not continue to be doggedly bullish, right? Isn't that what Pavlov's experiments showed about conditioned reflexes?

if they are trend followers, nothing wrong with their current stance. until the Feb low is taken out, some don't see a downtrend yet:

#1

This is truly amazing: After all these downward gyrations, there are still 8 bulls and 2 bears among the top ten consensus timers over at Timer Digest. I guess it's because this long bull run from March 2009 to April 2010 has conditioned lots of people to disbelieve the bear case. You were rewarded for your stubborn bullishness over the past 13 months, so why not continue to be doggedly bullish, right? Isn't that what Pavlov's experiments showed about conditioned reflexes?

if they are trend followers, nothing wrong with their current stance. until the Feb low is taken out, some don't see a downtrend yet:

#1

You're right.

The speculation supports a bounce here, but only a bounce I am afraid... The internals are also extremely oversold, the only way to sustain this decline is by crashing rapidly from here, not that it cannot happen, but we already had one, I am in the camp of a "process" than an "event" from here...

Slipping below 1112 on ES in the next few hours would be pretty bad actually, this is where the most futures volume occurred for the past 2 sessions. So, the futures seem to be fighting for the dear life here. Perhaps we will really see below 1100 before any upside turn, but I am expecting a touch to 1122-1125 resistance again before selling off further and it could get some legs perhaps over 1122-1125 resistance...

On the other hand, Euro bounced back up to Tuesday's highs where the equity sell off also started, but SPX is lagging in recovering its losses. The panic on Euro may be ending, but it really means there is a lot of deflation ahead, some investors who has been hiding in US assets may also choose to rotate into European assets again...

So, US assets may not really enjoy the reversal in Euro as much as anticipated... I think there is more downside, but I do also think that the initial panic is gradually easing at this juncture. There was some panic this morning and this decline will be rather a process than a quick decline and recovery.

So, I still see a sharp bounce possibility within the longer term (down) trend theme... Therefore, it makes sense to bounce and confuse the majority or keep the "hope" alive...

Best of luck.

Edit: I expect about 20 points bounce to mid 1130s due to the very strong 8-9 day cyclicality...

Edited by arbman, 19 May 2010 - 09:26 PM.

I see a bottom around here. The first upside target is spx 1162.

The speculation supports a bounce here, but only a bounce I am afraid... The internals are also extremely oversold, the only way to sustain this decline is by crashing rapidly from here, not that it cannot happen, but we already had one, I am in the camp of a "process" than an "event" from here...

Slipping below 1112 on ES in the next few hours would be pretty bad actually, this is where the most futures volume occurred for the past 2 sessions. So, the futures seem to be fighting for the dear life here. Perhaps we will really see below 1100 before any upside turn, but I am expecting a touch to 1122-1125 resistance again before selling off further and it could get some legs perhaps over 1122-1125 resistance...

On the other hand, Euro bounced back up to Tuesday's highs where the equity sell off also started, but SPX is lagging in recovering its losses. The panic on Euro may be ending, but it really means there is a lot of deflation ahead, some investors who has been hiding in US assets may also choose to rotate into European assets again...

So, US assets may not really enjoy the reversal in Euro as much as anticipated... I think there is more downside, but I do also think that the initial panic is gradually easing at this juncture. There was some panic this morning and this decline will be rather a process than a quick decline and recovery.

So, I still see a sharp bounce possibility within the longer term (down) trend theme... Therefore, it makes sense to bounce and confuse the majority or keep the "hope" alive...

Best of luck.

Edit: I expect about 20 points bounce to mid 1130s due to the very strong 8-9 day cyclicality...