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"Ideal" 16 wk cycle low was today


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#1 arbman

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Posted 20 May 2010 - 05:17 PM

Extremely stretched market, but the momentum is still increasing to the downside. These tend to stretch the cycle lows longer...

I think the reversal out of these extremes will be also very violent, but the first bounces will be sold.

I think Fed will have to step in with a purchasing program next week...

Best of luck.

#2 arbman

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Posted 20 May 2010 - 07:03 PM

The 1040 low should be taken before a substantial bounce happens tomorrow. Certainly 20 points lower from today's close is not too far. I think it will be a good place for a sharp reversal as anywhere else, I will buy there. I think June 2009 top around 950-970 will be a better support going forward, but this may not happen until later this summer. Ultimately, the market is going much lower into 2011...

#3 Islander

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Posted 20 May 2010 - 08:52 PM

No matter what happens on the bounce (that is due and over due), it is just the prelude to the next leg down. Stay loose. This is making a mess of Terry Laundry's timetable I think. I am lost in his rubric. Best, Islander.