Presuming that the market will not pull back...

The upside targets for the intermediate term becomes around 1170s, the weekly downside projections are now invalidated. Any sell off needs to get going immediately, given the breadth setup I find this very very unlikely.

Some details here from the weekend.

BTW, in one of the weekly projections there is a chance up to 1230 on SPX basis, but for now let's keep it quiet...

Edited by arbman, 13 July 2010 - 10:56 AM.

BTW, in one of the weekly projections there is a chance up to 1230 on SPX basis, but for now let's keep it quiet...

Did you drink some Redbull today ?

I would have guessed that the upside was more questionable if the breadth had been weak and the previous high had come with the lagging breadth... We need to see a top with a divergence in the cumulative a/d. The opposite happened instead as we had a new low with a divergence in the NYSI... Yes, we may see new highs in a hurry to create the necessary LT divergences!!! (edit: actually if the market needs to collapse into 2011-2012)

Edited by arbman, 14 July 2010 - 04:17 AM.

I would have guessed that the upside was more questionable if the breadth had been weak and the previous high had come with the lagging breadth... We need to see a top with a divergence in the cumulative a/d. The opposite happened instead as we had a new low with a divergence in the NYSI... Yes, we may see new highs in a hurry to create the necessary LT divergences!!! (edit: actually if the market needs to collapse into 2011-2012)

Remember this was the core argument that myself, Fib, IYB, Terry and many others made a few months back that without a A/D divergence, no bull market top has ever occurred, examining the A/D history of many decades back. Will this time be any different ? I will be watching with curiosity, although it has little bearing on any of my trades.

We need to see a top with a divergence in the cumulative a/d. The opposite happened instead as we had a new low with a divergence in the NYSI... Yes, we may see new highs in a hurry to create the necessary LT divergences!!!

If we rally here, you aren't gonna get a divergence immediately on the cum a/d since the price drops recently were leading the a/d to the downside and the cum a/d is now fairly close to the April highs (a/d line has recovered more than price has).
Doc