MARKET THOUGHTS RUT TRADE

we obviously are still in a bullish posture my short trade went negative today with the rut up strongly ... as soon as i exit it will end the winning streak since late April. i expected prices higher today just not this high on the rut and not this quickly. i was seeing 647 which i feel could just about top it out however the momo indicator could still drop into extreme positive territory and push this up again. apparently the bullish players that have been missing here at the board probably got in today and probably missed most of the 6 day move. that's not to good going forward as their stops are high up here. but for the players with bullish bets last week or for the rut just yesterday ....congrats on a nice winning day. trading experience says two things here and that is today is a bad day to try and get long or cover and one should try and cover the following day. so i'm going overnight again with all the world markets poised to rally into tomorrow morning off this upswing today, remember i don't like to get long near highs....even though i may be early to the short side,...and i don't like getting short near lows the rut should see a .5-1.0% pullback and if we get it early as i said earlier today ,,,, i'm in management mode i'll exit then and go partially long until the momo looks to enter then exit that extreme positive area. trade safe

Edited by Mr Dev, 13 July 2010 - 03:12 PM.

also like to add one thing that on the 5m vix ratio charts for Rut and NDx we did see some role over to the point of concern...the more important time frames like 30 and 60 are still safe.

Edited by Mr Dev, 13 July 2010 - 03:37 PM.

Hi Mr. Dev

Do you see .5-1.0% pullback tomorrow in early trading?


Thanks
Manuj

also like to add one thing that on the 5m vix ratio charts for Rut and NDx we did see some role over to the point of concern...the more important time frames like 30 and 60 are still safe.

Big pop but should be running out of rocket fuel now for the rest of July.

Today's July MTF indicator shown here

Came across this chart today --

Edited by Trendy, 13 July 2010 - 05:43 PM.

Got outta my longs yesterday(kinda early) and started small shorts....will be fully short on the pop tomorrow. RUT 647 to 650 should do it. Declining tops there and we had a 3.4% move today in RUT. Defcom 4 with high confidence to TRADE SAFELY.

I find it interesting that the VIX closed up .13 today after the huge rally. I guess people don't believe it's time to get bullish or the market is just overbought and due for a minor correction. I guess we should get that figured out this wk and then rallyhoe and VIX tanks.

Came across this chart today --

Interesting that herd behavior also peaked in the fall of 2008.

This behavior magnifies swings both up and down, like now, the herd is pushing up. b4 the next swing....

GS.

Thanks for that chart Trendy. I think another pop to the upside then a potential crash.