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Why I suggested not to get short

Started by VolPivots , Jul 13 2010 03:35 PM

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#1 VolPivots

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Posted 13 July 2010 - 03:35 PM

aside from the cyclic view....and the 1.6 wkly index putcall premium ratio weekend before last...and the "triple D" abc abc abc bottom....some data mining stats:

From 7/7
Study shows the returns of all 7 instances since April 1, 2009 whenever the SPY registered an intraday gain >= 2.5% from the opening bell. Downside risk is nearly nil while upside reward looks good through the end of next week, then risks increase afterwards. I won't be surprised if we're testing the 1090-1110 area by the end of next week....


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#2 arbman

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Posted 13 July 2010 - 04:10 PM

I think 1120s will be traded this week...

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#3 VolPivots

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Posted 13 July 2010 - 09:02 PM

I think 1120s will be traded this week...

G--

Right now the primary VST fractal I'm tracking says we're going ~ nowhere for the next 3 days....1100 cash would be a great opex pin. INTC's a great 'rally' catalyst, but probably need more than just that to get 1120 by end of week IMO.

#4 arbman

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Posted 13 July 2010 - 09:24 PM

Yes, the market is right back to 1100 and the closing P/C was low, but I think it overshoots and comes back to settle around 1107-1110. We have enough catalyst up to 1116-1117 at least for the next 2 days, this is about 15-18 points above, then we should see a sizable pull back next week. I would like to accumulate a swing short over 1110 for a trade as the short term speculation is now slowly piling up. BTW, gold is yet to test 1220s, EUR 1.28s, ZN 121'125...

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#5 porsche911sg

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Posted 13 July 2010 - 10:04 PM

Yes, the market is right back to 1100 and the closing P/C was low, but I think it overshoots and comes back to settle around 1107-1110. We have enough catalyst up to 1116-1117 at least for the next 2 days, this is about 15-18 points above, then we should see a sizable pull back next week. I would like to accumulate a swing short over 1110 for a trade as the short term speculation is now slowly piling up. BTW, gold is yet to test 1220s, EUR 1.28s, ZN 121'125...

I hope they get back to 1140s to 1150. The higher the better could be like 2007 a marginal new highs to confuse before it all explodes... I'll really get very short before it explodes.
The market catches almost everyone on the wrong side. We always seem to get fake break out before that huge dump or the hugh dump before the false break down! Trade Safe!

#6 arbman

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Posted 13 July 2010 - 10:35 PM

I think ZN is a short even if ES consolidates around 1100...

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#7 porsche911sg

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Posted 13 July 2010 - 11:01 PM

I think ZN is a short even if ES consolidates around 1100...

I think es will over shoot quite massively to the up side before any pull back but just dont corelate too many things.
The market catches almost everyone on the wrong side. We always seem to get fake break out before that huge dump or the hugh dump before the false break down! Trade Safe!

#8 arbman

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Posted 14 July 2010 - 10:20 AM

EUR is on its way to test 128s, but the retail numbers kept the rates in check, I think the 10 yr will not remain up there for too long though, especially if ES is headed above 1100... I sold short ZN above 122 this morning and bought ES below 1088, got paid for the day... :) Gold is slowly moving to test the overhead resistance, we will have a volatile pull back next week if they all hit their critical resistance points by Friday...

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