It is not surprising that the last FLD to confirm the upside to 1170s is around 1090s. The expiration and where the pullback or reversal begins is critical around the 1090 support. An expiration slightly above 1100 is needed, it is critical and I expect the level to be at least tested several times in the next 2 sessions...
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p13527836019&r=5648&.png
For now the upward cascade and breadth momentum should be respected. So, I will be buying the pull backs, but I think the volatility should return. The extremes will probably exhibit in the opposite direction as well...
Bull/bear control around 1100 on expiration Friday
Started by
arbman
, Jul 14 2010 08:34 AM
8 replies to this topic
#2
colion
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Posted 14 July 2010 - 08:56 AM
I agree that we will probably test 1100 several times until OPEX. However, why do you feel that an expiration above 1100 is needed? My stuff has 1096 expiration as "ideal".
#3
arbman
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Posted 14 July 2010 - 10:16 AM
An expiration above 1100 would confirm that the bulls are in control, yes the neutral level is right around 1100 +/- 5...
I am looking for an expiration around 1107 on Friday's open...
#4
colion
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Posted 14 July 2010 - 10:58 AM
OK, now understand your comment. As for 1096, am concerned about the index close.
#5
arbman
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Posted 14 July 2010 - 11:09 AM
OK, now understand your comment. As for 1096, am concerned about the index close.
I am not asserting that the expiration will be at 1107 though, I am only watching.
I strictly day traded the entire rally by managing to buy at the days low and selling near the day's highs, only an handful short trades, I held no overnight positions for over a week now...
I intend to sell short a rally to 1115-1125 range for a 35-40 point swing trade soon though. This rally is very very extended now...
#6
colion
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Posted 14 July 2010 - 11:47 AM
I intend to sell short a rally to 1115-1125 range for a 35-40 point swing trade soon though. This rally is very very extended now...
It'll be interesting to see if you get that high.
#7
arbman
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Posted 14 July 2010 - 12:04 PM
It'll be interesting to see if you get that high.
Technically we have the weekly range to rally that far unless we collapse to the bottom of the range from here to (1100-45=) 1150-1160s. I find this unlikely over the next 2 sessions, but not impossible, so I think I tend to expect more upside (1170+45 = 1115). But, 1120s maybe still tagged early next week ahead of a good pull back. Seasonally, next week is a terrible week to remain long, but selling short is tricky as you need to get the top of the range...
Edited by arbman, 14 July 2010 - 12:14 PM.
#8
thespookyone
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Posted 14 July 2010 - 06:26 PM
"Technically we have the weekly range to rally that far unless we collapse to the bottom of the range from here to (1100-45=) 1150-1160s. I find this unlikely over the next 2 sessions."
1065 ES, before Friday. I think quite likely-and I'll buy it.
Edited by thespookyone, 14 July 2010 - 06:27 PM.
#9
arbman
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Posted 14 July 2010 - 06:37 PM
A decline to 1065 would put the bears fully in control as the trend would be really beaten down and there would have to be more selling to pay them next week. It would be terrible basically. I expect a little more upside here for the expiration purposes and all... 
