About the 50/200

When this came up, I noted that the 20 year chart suggested that the
first tag of the 200 by a falling 50 was invariably bullish.

So far, so far:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p41633796965&a=203518697&r=9931.png

Correct as what io had been mentioning. I just dont where and when it tops that the whole issue typically they top 7% off the lows to 10% i.e 1100 all they to 1120 is possible even 1130...from there is see that the chance of a fall through is very high.

...and that's what I was saying back in May and June. As Yogi Berra would remind us:"It ain't over 'til it's over!"

My belief is that successful trading has at it's heart an understanding of context. I keep repeating this and I am sure it annoys some who are day traders and just do not believe it's relevant - or those who read the context differently. But this is Fearless Forecasters, and I've gotta say what I believe to be important. And to me, there is nothing more important to the trader than the context of the market. It affects all trends, right down to the one-minute intra day trend.

An exerpt from a May 22 post.....

This decline has been and continues to be a great trading opportunity on the short side.... certainly the best, in fact, since 2008. BUT...we need to keep our eyes on the instruments which tell us the primary direction, and IT decline (mini-crash) notwithstanding, that primary direction is still UP.

It makes me think of Lt. Col. Kilgore's infamous line "I love the smell of napalm in the morning...." from Apocalypse Now. But do you remember how he ended that soliloquy? "Some day this war's gonna end." That's the part that is easy to forget in the heat of battle - especially the trading battle.

The three most important rules of trading, imho 1.) never lose sight of context, 2.) never lose sight of rule #1, 3.) When in doubt, see rules one and two.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1996-01-28&i=p73030814314&a=181755078&r=650.png

Jmho, D

And then the weekly....

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=W&st=2003-01-01&en=(today)&id=p69549111090&a=177361222&listNum=14&r=3667.png