Inger: July's second half selloff

Inger from TT's New Market Analyist Area:
I suggested days ago in indicating the prospects of a ‘Mom’s b’day’ rally thrust after a lower-low, that we’d see Pollyannaish interpretations with prices going up, and then gloomster-like reflections, when prices resumed declining, perhaps in July’s 2nd half.

However, now that the pundits are arguing that ‘money can be made’ on the upside here; that’s a good sign they want ‘you’ to bid the market up; perhaps so they can sell their stocks to you just in time for...

That is especially so in those stocks among the big-caps that have very underfunded pension liabilities ahead; especially in the ‘full funded’ mandate for 2011 requirement. And then there was Goldman in today’s session; talking about a weaker Dollar and stronger Euro…almost cause one to speculate whether that means their positions are established...

At least we have been allowing for a seasonal thrust in this general area; so for us to be ‘wrong’ (if one wishes to term it that way); you’d have to have the market fail to decline in the second half of July and erode in August.

For us to be right short-term; it doesn’t matter if markets extend further short-term; it’s what it does in the ensuing 6 weeks; basically from mid-month or slightly thereafter forward. I hasten to mention we remain a ‘bad’ headline away from complete reversal of this rebound from the psychologically notable S&P 1000 area. Nothing is changed really. It’s more than a dead-cat bounce; but it was concentrated in the very stocks all the High Frequency Trading computers could influence (only 99 stocks accounted for 50% of the day’s volume (high frequency trading)). However that is the issue, as they basically took this market up simply as they ‘could’.
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The 99 stocks making up about 50% of the volume has always been like that, this shouldn't be new... What we have instead is a cyclical singularity in the breadth creating enormous up an down resonance. So, the downside move will probably exhibit the same extremes next week, I was hoping that the weekly range to be satisfied to the upside toward 1115 at least, let's see, it can still happen. This sell off is corrective imho as long as the gap doesn't fill today, the hourly divergence in the 10 yr bond looks ripe for another short now and a reversal in SPX...

I reembered inger forcast when i bought the gap down at 1004 was market will not be rebound so take the advise with a grain of salt.