big chance in rydex flows

They waited to be unlocked a bit and finally capitulated somewhat. Still highly elevated, however.

They waited to be unlocked a bit and finally capitulated somewhat. Still highly elevated, however.

GOOD CHANCE... i hope more will capitulate the more they more out the better will be the chance of a big move down.

Looking at total cash flow in Rydex is dropping and their hasn't been an uptick in bull funds due to withdraws it is still bearish. We are getting selling now from the bears. We might have a couple more days of bears giving up... We are likely closing in on the top.... Barry

Rydex seems soooo 20th century. Is there any smart money in those funds? How do you take guidance from what goes on there? Do you happen to have a chart of Rydex flows/levels compared to the SPX?

Rydex seems soooo 20th century. Is there any smart money in those funds?
How do you take guidance from what goes on there? Do you happen
to have a chart of Rydex flows/levels compared to the SPX?

Most smart money have moved to ETFs and do not use Rydex anymore... So you are right in saying the effectiveness of Rydex Ratio have diminished for what it use to be. Rydex publishes how much money it has on the books on a daily basis to see what is happening with mutual funds. I do extrapolate that for Mutual funds in general. There is a correlation between market direction and Rydex ratios which I use in my trading. One of those is an indication of how short or long the average investor is currently.

Looking at total cash flow in Rydex is dropping and their hasn't been an uptick in bull funds due to withdraws it is still bearish. We are getting selling now from the bears. We might have a couple more days of bears giving up... We are likely closing in on the top....

Barry

Yes, am waiting for a confirmation of a top to get short I think tom after opex opening or next week we get a large fall through.

I think any falls will be bought up at the moment.

One of my favorite subjects. The funds to watch at Rydex now are the SPX 1x funds because they represent conservative money. If you go back and look at the last two months you can gain good insights for short term sentiment. 1x funds got way too bullish in May, and it took the lower low in the SPX to flush them out. On the 2X funds, that is where Hot money still plays. the 2x spx fund is designated as where Flipper plays. Flipper over the last two months is 1 for 6 Wins. The one win was very minor. The ONLY reason, IMO, they covered yesterday was pain, as they shorted around 1025 spx cash. Now we are free to have a correction, sentiment wise. Flipper is regularly moving about 160 million now a days. Some ETF facts: 1/ Rydex total assets represent the smallest overall total of the 4 companies I will mention here at about 9 Billion. 2/ Direxion is number 2 at a little less than 20 Billion, however each fund is matched with Long and Short funds, and they are primarily 3X funds but a few 2x's exist. Direxion reports each funds assets at their website in file download form. 3/ Proshares is by far the number 1 leader for Hot money with around 65 billion in total assets. Like Direxion they have issued matched pairs for long and short funds. They also report each funds assets at their website each day, and even have a NAV historical file. 4/ The biggest company is 1st State Street with somewhere around 350 Billion in total assets. They were the 1st to get started other than the spy/qqqq ETFs in the late 1990's with the 10 or so foreign ETFs. The reason they are not big with flows is that every ETF they offer is 1x long only. There is one Bond short fund, but in general they do not offer anything for the Hot money. Bottom line: Proshares and Direxion flows tell a story like the Rydex flows did in the early 2000's, but to my knowledge there is no one publishing the data they provide on a daily basis.

Edited by Darris, 15 July 2010 - 09:08 AM.

Looking at total cash flow in Rydex is dropping and their hasn't been an uptick in bull funds due to withdraws it is still bearish. We are getting selling now from the bears. We might have a couple more days of bears giving up... We are likely closing in on the top....

Barry

Yes, am waiting for a confirmation of a top to get short I think tom after opex opening or next week we get a large fall through.

I think any falls will be bought up at the moment.

Looks like the buying is weak....... I'm currently changed to 2X short in a 50/50 split SDS and QID... Made about 9% on my QLD trade over the last week.

Barry

Looking at total cash flow in Rydex is dropping and their hasn't been an uptick in bull funds due to withdraws it is still bearish. We are getting selling now from the bears. We might have a couple more days of bears giving up... We are likely closing in on the top....

Barry

Yes, am waiting for a confirmation of a top to get short I think tom after opex opening or next week we get a large fall through.

I think any falls will be bought up at the moment.

Looks like the buying is weak....... I'm currently changed to 2X short in a 50/50 split SDS and QID... Made about 9% on my QLD trade over the last week.

Barry

Congrats Barry I just dont have the conviction that the market has topped out today, there is not enough signs it looks more like short selling to me there is little buyers as well but sounds like more shorts in action, when the rally breaks it will break hard.