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Gap up or gap down?


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#1 dcengr

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Posted 15 July 2010 - 08:43 PM

There's news, theres OPEX, all sorts of stuff... BAC, C, GE.. I'm leaning towards a gap down, but just leaning right now. Bears took it on the chin and the last minute rally on 'news' isn't what I would call 'bullish'. I have my statistical system, which had given me a sell, but got invalidated because 'time window' ran out. That doesn't mean it can't sell off, just the odds aren't as optimal. I have a fractal system, which predicted a high of Dow 10,350.. it overshot that by about 50 points... but this predicts the next low about Dow 10,150 ish during this consolidation. I also have an experimental cycle system which predicts a top at 2:30 AM today. So all my systems are leaning bear. I am not short yet, I want to get a bit more data because the bears got screwed pretty hard today. No need to hurry. I want to see TSP polls, Rydex flows for today.
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#2 porsche911sg

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Posted 15 July 2010 - 08:47 PM

There's news, theres OPEX, all sorts of stuff...

BAC, C, GE..

I'm leaning towards a gap down, but just leaning right now. Bears took it on the chin and the last minute rally on 'news' isn't what I would call 'bullish'.

I have my statistical system, which had given me a sell, but got invalidated because 'time window' ran out. That doesn't mean it can't sell off, just the odds aren't as optimal.

I have a fractal system, which predicted a high of Dow 10,350.. it overshot that by about 50 points... but this predicts the next low about Dow 10,150 ish during this consolidation.

I also have an experimental cycle system which predicts a top at 2:30 AM today.

So all my systems are leaning bear. I am not short yet, I want to get a bit more data because the bears got screwed pretty hard today. No need to hurry. I want to see TSP polls, Rydex flows for today.

Gap Down. Just Nice euro based on system has most likely toped so you know it just nice for all to come down together.

Get short BEFORE it drop.... i was mentioning to my mail to you and everyone on TT it will close flat and gap up giving the bears a chance to short.. we could moved back up 1120 after falling or it is the top it falls from here.
The market catches almost everyone on the wrong side. We always seem to get fake break out before that huge dump or the hugh dump before the false break down! Trade Safe!

#3 arbman

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Posted 15 July 2010 - 09:59 PM

Don't you love this? Tf flat, es up, dx up, zn up, everything is going up :rolleyes:

#4 Iblayz

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Posted 15 July 2010 - 10:03 PM

I say the SPX has 13 pts. left in the run max. I have sell signals as of the close on SMH and BKX but nothing else that I maintain data on. But, absent a really big run, I will have sell signals (ST as usual) on everything else I track as of tomorrow's close. I say no way there is a gap down. Too much big money needing to cash in index calls in the AM. Plenty of Liquididty in the futures to escape afterward.

#5 porsche911sg

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Posted 16 July 2010 - 12:18 AM

DC,

Look at the chart of the nikkei:

http://finance.yahoo...ource=undefined

Serious selling going on.
The market catches almost everyone on the wrong side. We always seem to get fake break out before that huge dump or the hugh dump before the false break down! Trade Safe!

#6 dcengr

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Posted 16 July 2010 - 12:23 AM

DC,

Look at the chart of the nikkei:

http://finance.yahoo...ource=undefined

Serious selling going on.


http://e.nikkei.com/...marketlive.aspx

That's the real time one..

Yes its down 3% now.
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#7 porsche911sg

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Posted 16 July 2010 - 12:50 AM

DC,

Look at the chart of the nikkei:

http://finance.yahoo...ource=undefined

Serious selling going on.


http://e.nikkei.com/...marketlive.aspx

That's the real time one..

Yes its down 3% now.

It a huge move down counting that they already moved down yesterday. The currency moves are getting wild right now plus euro might have just topped out below that 1.30 everybody wants.
The market catches almost everyone on the wrong side. We always seem to get fake break out before that huge dump or the hugh dump before the false break down! Trade Safe!

#8 dcengr

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Posted 16 July 2010 - 01:30 AM

watch futures.. we're breaking up out of a channel..
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#9 dcengr

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Posted 16 July 2010 - 02:09 AM

i wouldn't be surprised if we exceeded 1100 ES tonight before BAC, C earnings.. but i'm still flat.
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#10 dcengr

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Posted 16 July 2010 - 05:00 AM

we're within cyclical turn window... 7_16_10.png
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