Amazing if it continues.

Have we lost the offset and are we hitting it on the very day?
There is a wee squiggle in there.

As I opined yesterday:
"I think the big consideration today is where do "they" need to take this for the most money.
Maybe that little double top in the statistical graph shows typical OP-EX "adjustments."
Just sayin' "
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&b=3&g=0&i=p10055783741&a=203395496&r=7174.png

Edited by Rogerdodger, 16 July 2010 - 09:13 AM.

Everybody seems convienced that this is just a small correction.
Everybody except Arch Crawford: "Mars - Uranus crash cycle begins August 1st."
(Unless he has recanted.)

Arch and Laundry agree: Bad late summer

WOW!
Terry Laundry references Arch Crawford in today's update.
Here is Arch's latest interview with Ike.

Pull Quote:
Ike Iossif: "I see the worst coming in 2011. What do you think?
Arch: "I'm not sure we are going to get there."

Market View LINK

Arch Crawford has been lightly short (50%) since March 8th
Says the seasonal pattern should be up into April-May, although the Bradley has turned.

There will be a major dislocation this year not unlike 2008
Worst Bradley has seen in 200 years, maybe 1,000, 10,000 years according to astrologers.
Hopi are looking for "5th destruction of the world."

Why so bad? Humans are not used to all the energy to be released.
"Mars will be conjunct Saturn, opposing Jupiter conjunct Uranus, squared by Pluto.
Occurring from middle June to Middle August.
Mars - Uranus crash cycle begins August 1st."

"I just hope the puts and shorts will be paid off before the whole system melts down."

Ike Issoff: "I see the worst coming in 2011. What do you think?
Arch: "I haven't looked much into 2011. I'm not sure we are going to get there."

Arch sees support for gold here at 1100 to 1080.
"The first week of April gold will take off like a rocket."

PS:
Here is a Bradley chart posted back in Feb. warning about August 2010.
It differs a bit from what Arch mentioned about the worst astrology pattern in 200, 1000, or 10,000 years.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 16 July 2010 - 09:11 AM.

If you line up the last couple of spx turns with the turns on the model, we are not there yet, I don't think. I am willing and anxious to be a believer but need to see a few more bars.

FIB lines are interesting at Thursday's high.

Roger, my advise to you would be to fogeddabout all that Arch Crawford nonsense, and listen instead to the advise of a very wise man who said the other day:

The real tactical move might be down here and now, failing right at the downtrendline.
Overjoyed the Bears go on a picnic, eating fermented berries.
When they pass out, the bulls mount a surprise attack, since "everyone" knows we sell off in Mid July.
BEAR LINK

It's a great time to be in cash, but don't drink the berry Koolaid...

Without outright QE, the Fed's balance sheet expands mainly during the week prior to Options Expiration. The primary dealers probably have the final say in this because it's so consistent. Last week, it was 7.6 billion dollars. The other thing I've read is that the big banks are borrowing heavily from the Fed after the start of each month for their fixed-income trading and have to reduce the loans by the time the books close for the month. Hence, we have a very pronounced up-down cycle each month.

Well I'm short with stops at the high Thursday. This bull's going to have to prove it's not quite dead yet. Monday has one of those cute little bears, a bull Tuesday. As you can see statistically there's a headwind for bulls next week. Inger mentioned that the only thing that can give this market any hope at all would be a surprise tax cut. Yeah right!

Your chart will be chart of the year if the pattern continues. I don't think I've ever heard of anyone being more bearish than Arch. What he's talking about is worse than the 1987 system failure.. Looks like it should be a summer to remember... This correction better stop pretty soon or it won't be mild anymore....lol "I just hope the puts and shorts will be paid off before the whole system melts down." Ike Issoff: "I see the worst coming in 2011. What do you think? Arch: "I haven't looked much into 2011. I'm not sure we are going to get there."

Your chart will be chart of the year if the pattern continues.

Allow me to mention that the seasonal chart is from Mike Burk at Safehaven.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 16 July 2010 - 04:27 PM.

Your chart will be chart of the year if the pattern continues.

Allow me to mention that the seasonal chart is from Mike Burk at Safehaven.

I thought it was. I haven't seen him post it on his wkly updates. I have to say you do a good job with it.
I wondered why he called for the market lower this wk or for a wk and a half. Looks like he pulled his forecast off today....lol