Still within the fractal model for a long trade

The fractal model is based on Dow. And it had projected -270 from the top, which today's low was a little more than.. +/-50 points this fractal I consider still good. As I said before, I think we're in an a-b-c rally upwards, with 'a' being a 5 wave, b being a complex a-b-c-x-a-b-c, and 'c' being another 5. I think we have have seen 'a', and we are in a-b-c.. an x wave to come, which would take us close to ES 1090 then further drop.. maybe to ES 1050 ish.. not much lower than here. Until I see something different, this is the 'plan' I am going by. I am guessing there will be some weekend fear to dump some longs on sunday.. if I look at weekend data and it looks good, perhaps I'll try another dip into a long position. We may hit ES 1052-1053 on sunday.. that's a projection for now.

Edited by dcengr, 16 July 2010 - 03:14 PM.

The fractal model is based on Dow. And it had projected -270 from the top, which today's low was a little more than.. +/-50 points this fractal I consider still good.

As I said before, I think we're in an a-b-c rally upwards, with 'a' being a 5 wave, b being a complex a-b-c-x-a-b-c, and 'c' being another 5.

I think we have have seen 'a', and we are in a-b-c.. an x wave to come, which would take us close to ES 1090 then further drop.. maybe to ES 1050 ish.. not much lower than here.

Until I see something different, this is the 'plan' I am going by.

I am guessing there will be some weekend fear to dump some longs on sunday.. if I look at weekend data and it looks good, perhaps I'll try another dip into a long position.

We may hit ES 1052-1053 on sunday.. that's a projection for now.

Chances are everyone get bulled up and it rebounds during the futures session always the case in a BEAR MARKET. The down trend is likely to make a new low before rebounding the lows which i bought at 1004 was not the real bottom as the transaced volumes was below the norm the big es was trading higher than small es by almost one point at the lows and there were no sellers larger gaps in between. My buy order simply moved it up by 2 points so it cant be the bottom. In major lows Volume is high.

If you look at the mid channel of the down trend the sell volume were generally much more than the buy volume, this is a good chance the lows will be broken down very quickly forming new lows below 1000. The 1120 is gone. We are at the top of the down trend line.

Porche, perhaps.. But I consider the last low as a secondary low, not a primary low, even though prices were lower. That gives it a candidate for an IT low and if I've got a correct view, the IT leg up isn't finished. But today's slide bothered me quite a bit because of the strength of the thrust. I didn't anticipate this much carnage in 1 day. Thus I'll have to reassess. Likely I'll be scalping intraday trying to get a better feel for how the IT trend is headed. I'm still of the opinion that we are in a correction in an IT uptrend which won't make higher highs but somewhere around 1170 ish. That opinion will change quickly if I don't see divergence in internals in this slide vs price. Another reason I'm hesitant that we're resuming the downtrend is that sentiment hasn't reset. Though we could be entering crash territory like oct 2008, I'm not seeing a credit problem that would facilitate that. I'll keep my options open by trading more open minded than directional until I get a clearer picture of the trend.

Porche, perhaps..

But I consider the last low as a secondary low, not a primary low, even though prices were lower. That gives it a candidate for an IT low and if I've got a correct view, the IT leg up isn't finished.

But today's slide bothered me quite a bit because of the strength of the thrust. I didn't anticipate this much carnage in 1 day. Thus I'll have to reassess. Likely I'll be scalping intraday trying to get a better feel for how the IT trend is headed.

I'm still of the opinion that we are in a correction in an IT uptrend which won't make higher highs but somewhere around 1170 ish. That opinion will change quickly if I don't see divergence in internals in this slide vs price.

Another reason I'm hesitant that we're resuming the downtrend is that sentiment hasn't reset. Though we could be entering crash territory like oct 2008, I'm not seeing a credit problem that would facilitate that.

I'll keep my options open by trading more open minded than directional until I get a clearer picture of the trend.

what you said makes sense i was thinking along side the double dip senanrio that i posted last year. The main reason why i was suspecting a down trend from march as charts on the buy side had very low volume they seems not to balance if you do the calculations. The sale were not from public/retail sales.

Secondly I notice the sale Since es 1111 from Sept last year was done by company executives. Of it had my alarm bells ringing making me keen to get short around those levels.

Thirdly all fundmanagers who peformance had been nothing but spectacular are not buying into these rallies. In fact all stopped buying at 1111.

There were plently of these sale in 2003 and 2007, 2008. Something is fishy but then it's good to keep an open mind at this juncture.

I think we do bounce on monday a failure would accelerate the down trend. if they can hold up we mightturn up again. The second issue is that the charts on SP look very much like the charts on Nikkei, if you look at the morninnin charts i posted the SP is replicating it at night.

The 50/200 x over also looks the same. Scary.. but nikkei seems to be always ahead of the US for some time.