Nearby SPX

I noted Thursday evening that we were on a string of higher highs and higher lows, and that the good short
(big easy wood, swamploggers) should await a lower high and a lower low. Little did I suspect that the
scenario would be complete with the first bar the next day:




Presently maybe a countertrend long is presented - for those with the ginger to trade them. Here is an
update on the pitchfork. There is nothing about it right now that makes me drool to buy.

Edited by selecto, 17 July 2010 - 01:00 PM.

Hi Mike.
There my be some cross currents in play with the VIX.

VIX options expiration differs from other options expiration. While the options expire on the third Friday, the VIX options expire exactly 30 days before the next options expiration. The VIX options expire always on the Wednesday that is thirty days prior to the third Friday of the following calendar month. (August 20th) This is because the VIX index was designed to be a consistent 30-day benchmark of expected market volatility and the VIX index is calculated as a weighted average of options expiring on two different dates.

VIX options will not always reflect current, real-time VIX values, at least not until they get close to expiration, and this is because the underlying value for VIX options is the expected or forward value of VIX at expiration, rather than the current. For instance, VIX options expiring in May will be based on June SPX options (expiring 30 days later).

That puts VIX expiration into mid week, Wednesday I believe.
So there may be some jockeying around.

Edited by Rogerdodger, 17 July 2010 - 01:42 PM.

Mike am missing something here? A countertrend long?? Based on your second chart, it shows that the wave down is going to 1040

Rog, I find that the same intraday crunches on price, price:vix, price:trin and bxm are by and large lockstep; price:vix is a tad smoother. Porsche, its a 60 minute chart which hints (along with other stuff not posted) at some kind of (countertrend) bounce. We don't always get to targets in a straight line. The "play" off the chart would be to short the turn off a lower high, should that happen. Maybe.

Edited by selecto, 17 July 2010 - 01:53 PM.

Mike am missing something here? A countertrend long??

Based on your second chart, it shows that the wave down is going to 1040

Porsche I keep seeing the terms "countertrend rally" and "short covering rally" and am also baffled. But hey, it's just perspective, I guess...

Neither of you appear to grock the window.

Edited by selecto, 17 July 2010 - 09:39 PM.

Neither of you appear to grock the window.

I see the window. It's just that the decline shown in that window is what I consider to be a "counter trend" decline, based on the trend I consider to be key to trading strategy here. But yes- you'd have to call any rally here "counter trend" looking only at the 60 min. per the window. Point taken and accepted.