$TNX on the cusp of a bull market?

I happen to believe that one of the best bull/bear market indicators is when all three of the 20sma/50sma/200sma slopes have turned towards a + or - bias. Usually, that is. Unless someone wants to scramble the message (hmmm... who could that be, I do wonder?).

If you are similarly inclined, you of course would like to look into the prospects for continuation of such a turn.

Well, here's a startling clear look at the play setup for these common moving averages. These are live charts that you can refer back to daily, weekly, whenever.

Price cleared the 20sma and 50sma flatline/turnline prices back in October (and held), and those ma's turned upward accordingly in October. Now we're testing the 200sma flatline prices.

If/when price clears above all three colored lines in chart #1, price is technically in bull market territory because all three of the common sma's will have turned upward.


http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=15&i=p52882121433&r=4744.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=15&i=p25831910198&r=9407.png


If price clears and holds the chart #1 blue line, would this bullish condition have staying power? By "technically" definition yes, and that technical status would remain until price turns all three moving averages back down. But there's this one little problem.

Obviously the "bullish condition" of the 200sma could be maintained while price gets a 30%+ haircut. Also obviously, the gigantic dip in the 200ma slope flatline/turnline prices will influence the 200sma with a relentless upward bias. In chart #1, should price cross the red line (50sma flatline/turnline prices) while staying well above the blue line (200sma flatline/turnline prices), the 50sma will turn downward as the 200sma turns upward. That would create a moving average pincer formation fondly referred to as a death cross.


My thoughts: this is a dangerous place to begin a lasting bull market in the 10-year yield. Very, very dangerous. And, moving average based systems are going to get pummeled going forward on this index.

Edited by spielchekr, 10 February 2011 - 09:08 PM.

Market did behave well in higher rate environment in past! How low rates can go!


http://finance.yahoo...ource=undefined

My thoughts: this is a dangerous place to begin a lasting bull market in the 10-year yield. Very, very dangerous. And, moving average based systems are going to get pummeled going forward on this index.

My thoughts on long bonds...

http://investorshub....age_id=59117397

Last post on bonds at TT:

http://www.traders-t...?...=122982&hl=

cheers,

john

P.S. vitaminm ... you always have something to say when I show up.

cot suggesting commercials moving to long dollar and bonds

http://www.forecasts.org/30yrT.htm

Market did behave well in higher rate environment in past! How low rates can go!


http://finance.yahoo...ource=undefined

Not that anyone cares, but the 200sma flatline/rollunder price (36.14) is being tested today. Funny how it gapped right up there to start the day. Live chart:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p36344562784&r=8098.png

Edited by spielchekr, 18 February 2011 - 08:36 AM.

Live chart:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&i=p36344562784&r=8098.png

Sure behaves like resistance, doesn't it? I think it will continue for as long as the Fed wants to (and is able to) keep a lid on interest rates. The stock market may not yet understand, but it will. Just scroll up to the first chart on this thread for a preview of where this resistance would take the 10-year yield.

Edited by spielchekr, 22 February 2011 - 12:34 PM.

At some point down the line, yield will be allowed to cross the 200sma flatline brink. But not until it's all but certain that this will then lead to a 50sma/200sma death cross.

Picture-perfect ping of the 20sma/200sma flatline price convergences (34.28/34.29). Live chart:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=15&i=p97414662536&r=1328.png

And the 50sma incidentally is the designated support line.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=15&i=p86413939238&r=342.png

BTW, this is the threshold to Bond Safehavenland. No wonder equities are duking it out here.

Edited by spielchekr, 24 February 2011 - 10:24 AM.

I posted yesterday that I think it's "mission accomplished" here (price is adequately set up to be maintained for navigation towards a death cross this summer), but I'm following up on this for demonstration purposes. I see that the both the 50sma line (34.46) and it's rollover price threshold (34.55) are being tested today. Here's a live isolation chart zoom:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&i=t25068687071&r=8813.png


My thoughts: The idea is not about fixing anything. This is about who will take the hit, and the institutions-in-charge aren't going to be the ones to take it. The aim to string this out as long as possible for stratigic positioning purposes.

Edited by spielchekr, 25 February 2011 - 10:29 AM.