This drop MUST be due to news. We are in a very powerful uptrend, and these up trends don't just flop over like a goldfish you won at your local fair.
I have added to my longs here for a 1326.75ES basis. Stop is 1325ES. This gives me a risk of about 2-2.5 points with upside potential of at least 9 points.
200% long at 1326.75ES basis
Started by
orange
, Feb 22 2011 12:02 AM
8 replies to this topic
#1
orange
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Posted 22 February 2011 - 12:02 AM
"When your position is underwater, average down" - Professional Trader
#2
dcengr
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Posted 22 February 2011 - 12:10 AM
10 pts sound right to me..
that's what I am expecting.
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?
#3
thespookyone
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Posted 22 February 2011 - 12:35 AM
The bounce will come, but you'll see your stop run first, imho.
#4
dcengr
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Posted 22 February 2011 - 12:39 AM
Yes I am changing my mind...
Looking at the price structure, it looks like it may climax into the night...
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?
#5
orange
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Posted 22 February 2011 - 12:48 AM
I just can't help my self...
Given it was a holiday, the whole move occurred on very light volume. If we drop through 1325, we could quickly see 1320 which is a stretch...
The original analysis called for weakness of -1% to -1.5%, where any quick decline would be bought. We are resting near the bottom channel in the futures, where the larger downside targets bottom around this level in the very short term. I am simply letting the market play into my hands and am willing to accept a small loss if it doesn't work out.
I could be wrong, but the risk is well worth imo. I just hope the bulls don't wake up and panic...
http://stockcharts.c...8928&r=9102.png
Given it was a holiday, the whole move occurred on very light volume. If we drop through 1325, we could quickly see 1320 which is a stretch...
The original analysis called for weakness of -1% to -1.5%, where any quick decline would be bought. We are resting near the bottom channel in the futures, where the larger downside targets bottom around this level in the very short term. I am simply letting the market play into my hands and am willing to accept a small loss if it doesn't work out.
I could be wrong, but the risk is well worth imo. I just hope the bulls don't wake up and panic...
http://stockcharts.c...8928&r=9102.png
"When your position is underwater, average down" - Professional Trader
#6
dcengr
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Posted 22 February 2011 - 01:13 AM
Well I'm thinking even 1310 can be seen tonight...
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?
#7
thespookyone
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Posted 22 February 2011 - 01:23 AM
Orange-I see the logic of your play, just think the stop will get run, maybe by only half a point the first run down through. But I think enven if 24.50 holds-there is another move down before the bounce you look for transpires-a wave issue for me.
That said, I'll be as glad as anyone to both play the bounce up-and short it with both barrells when it completes. I'd guage the bounce to be 10.5 to 13 points when we bottom, fwiw. Good luck on your trade, and thanks for your informed posts-I always look forward to them.
#8
orange
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Posted 22 February 2011 - 02:13 AM
Alright, closed out for -2 
Edited by orange, 22 February 2011 - 02:13 AM.
"When your position is underwater, average down" - Professional Trader
#9
thespookyone
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Posted 22 February 2011 - 11:14 AM
[quote name='orange' date='Feb 22 2011, 04:13 AM' post='563923']
Alright, closed out for -2
[/quote
Orange-Nice call on the rip to 1320-dead on the money.
Alright, closed out for -2
[/quote
Orange-Nice call on the rip to 1320-dead on the money.
