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Is the trend down now?


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#1 Dr_Octopus

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Posted 22 February 2011 - 01:00 PM

I have been watching very intelligent traders here who identified the trend accurately before.

I followed their footprints and went fully long ES at 1342 on Friday.
Fib , fluid, IndexTrader, OEXCHAOS and IYB to name a few.

I know IYB and OEXCHAOS said they will be buyers this morning. I am curious what others are thinking now?
Are they buying too? Thanks in advance.

Faithfully yours.

Edited by Dr_Octopus, 22 February 2011 - 01:02 PM.

Formerly "Alex The Short Seller" - Notorious Bear Raider

#2 xtrader

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Posted 22 February 2011 - 01:03 PM

Hi Octopus, R u being sarcastic? haha.. your previous posts highlighted 1342 very clearly haha.. I remember Fib's "ETS" % was like 90% or 95% BUY at 1342 I can't remember LOL..

#3 andiron

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Posted 22 February 2011 - 01:07 PM

shhh! NYAD cum is still trending up! so what's the beef?

#4 blustar

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Posted 22 February 2011 - 01:15 PM

I have been watching very intelligent traders here who identified the trend accurately before.

I followed their footprints and went fully long ES at 1342 on Friday.
Fib , fluid, IndexTrader, OEXCHAOS and IYB to name a few.

I know IYB and OEXCHAOS said they will be buyers this morning. I am curious what others are thinking now?
Are they buying too? Thanks in advance.

Faithfully yours.

FWIW, I believe the daily/weekly trend is still up but almost topping.

Blessings,

 

blu

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#5 Rogerdodger

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Posted 22 February 2011 - 01:26 PM

I followed their footprints???


You can't trade for yourself?
Why didn't you follow the footprints of those who were short?

If you did buy this morning, you had a nice profit.
Did you take it?

Edited by Rogerdodger, 22 February 2011 - 01:27 PM.


#6 fluid

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Posted 22 February 2011 - 01:27 PM

I have been watching very intelligent traders here who identified the trend accurately before.

I followed their footprints and went fully long ES at 1342 on Friday.
Fib , fluid, IndexTrader, OEXCHAOS and IYB to name a few.

I know IYB and OEXCHAOS said they will be buyers this morning. I am curious what others are thinking now?
Are they buying too? Thanks in advance.

Faithfully yours.


I got stopped at breakeven and told you to sell at the top 1142, so I hope you followed that advice.

I am looking to go short on a bounce in the 1320-1322 region, with a stop loss about 1325.

#7 Jhoe

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Posted 22 February 2011 - 01:30 PM

I dont think so my friend. Remember a downtrend is defined by lower HIGHS not necessarily a pattern of lower lows. Lower lows will break an uptrend line, but as we've seen since november's high volume trend line break, lower lows can either be a buying opportunity or the beginning of something more. My point is the only definitive way to determine the strength of this move down today is to watch how high we go whenever we get a sustainable bounce. What you want to see for a down trend and a medium-term trend reversal to be confirmed is the market rally back towards our spx 1344 high and come up short. This is a VERY VERY important development that many traders do not wait for, and often causes bad entry points from the short side, and a massive short squeeze that sort of leads to new highs in a vicious circle that some you will hear call a "bull market." Hey maybe it is, maybe it isnt, I'm too short term minded to care to be honest. Anyway, its this simple, if we make a lower high, especially on lighter volume than today's selling, thats a good place to TRY entering short. Why? Because now you've got defined trading points to use as failsafes or "stops" if you arent around to trade. Draw a line connecting the last high to the lower high, thats your downtrend line, and if we are in a longer-term reversal, thats the absolute best place to sell the market at. IMO the sustainability of the move down correlates inversely with the strength of todays selloff. Why? Well look at the pattern the last two years. The biggest medium-term selloffs have involved pretty volatile trading ranges for a few weeks before reversing, and as I said above, you ALWAYS saw that lower high get put in on a DAILY chart. We do not have that yet, we only have a 52 week SPX high and now a 2% selloff after a 3 day weekend. The only lower highs have come intraday, today's high stands around 1336. We need to retest that area at a minimum, and I bet we go above today's high in the next 5-7 days, because the only downtrend line you have now is unsustainably steep and will cause a massive short squeeze when the market starts to move back towards 1325 and above. That move and how far it can extend will tell you if the trend has reversed or if this is a very short term affair. My guess, and the lesson of recent history, is that the latter is true.

#8 tommyt

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Posted 22 February 2011 - 01:31 PM

it is for some...time frame amigo, time frame.

#9 fluid

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Posted 22 February 2011 - 01:38 PM

For some reasaon my messages are taking time to go through. You should have closed at 1342, you may recall I mentioned it on Friday I believe. I think there is a chance of lower prices here: I have put in a short order at the 1320-25 level.

#10 spielchekr

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Posted 22 February 2011 - 01:43 PM

Is it just me, or am I detecting actual SPD (Sarcasm Perceptivity Deficiency) here? :huh:


I've determined instead that my SPE (Sarcasm Perceptivity Excessivity) must be getting to me.