Posted 22 February 2011 - 01:30 PM
I dont think so my friend. Remember a downtrend is defined by lower HIGHS not necessarily a pattern of lower lows. Lower lows will break an uptrend line, but as we've seen since november's high volume trend line break, lower lows can either be a buying opportunity or the beginning of something more.
My point is the only definitive way to determine the strength of this move down today is to watch how high we go whenever we get a sustainable bounce. What you want to see for a down trend and a medium-term trend reversal to be confirmed is the market rally back towards our spx 1344 high and come up short. This is a VERY VERY important development that many traders do not wait for, and often causes bad entry points from the short side, and a massive short squeeze that sort of leads to new highs in a vicious circle that some you will hear call a "bull market." Hey maybe it is, maybe it isnt, I'm too short term minded to care to be honest. Anyway, its this simple, if we make a lower high, especially on lighter volume than today's selling, thats a good place to TRY entering short. Why? Because now you've got defined trading points to use as failsafes or "stops" if you arent around to trade. Draw a line connecting the last high to the lower high, thats your downtrend line, and if we are in a longer-term reversal, thats the absolute best place to sell the market at.
IMO the sustainability of the move down correlates inversely with the strength of todays selloff. Why? Well look at the pattern the last two years. The biggest medium-term selloffs have involved pretty volatile trading ranges for a few weeks before reversing, and as I said above, you ALWAYS saw that lower high get put in on a DAILY chart. We do not have that yet, we only have a 52 week SPX high and now a 2% selloff after a 3 day weekend. The only lower highs have come intraday, today's high stands around 1336. We need to retest that area at a minimum, and I bet we go above today's high in the next 5-7 days, because the only downtrend line you have now is unsustainably steep and will cause a massive short squeeze when the market starts to move back towards 1325 and above. That move and how far it can extend will tell you if the trend has reversed or if this is a very short term affair. My guess, and the lesson of recent history, is that the latter is true.