Trading Scenarios

For your daily intellectual entertainment... Thanks for your participation.

For your daily intellectual entertainment...

Thanks for your participation.

Hi Arb, I have not read through all the threads but was curious what your take is?

My favorite sequence: 1285 gap fill in the next 2-3 sessions a sharp bounce next week, perhaps new high on SPX then a roll over in early March a sell off down to 1250 by early April, kind of a running correction. I think the last bit of lows should come around early April, it could be as low as 1225 and as late as the week of April 11th. I think the combination of 60-62 wk and 40 wk cycles will create a lot of resonance first down and then up into spring. So for intermediate term, the market should be rolling over with wide swings in the first half. Upside target 1350-1380, if 1250 holds, otherwise, I will try to adjust to fit about 100-120 points rally from the lows (1220-1350) etc... For the long term, I am looking lower thereafter into October (15-20% crash or severe sell off) as 200 dma will probably turn down in fall and probably a rally from 80 wk low in December, I see higher in early 2012 and then lower till mid-2013. I see this year so far similar to 2007, the year that Fed starts to blow up, similar to the year real estate blew up. I think 2011 could close near break even with a last minute rally in December, but 2012 into 2013 will be the final phase of the bear, I expect the debt implosions to continue and straight out deflation.

There is one more possibility, it is low, but I must say it. We will see a straight down next week down to 1250 and then start the rally into April.

For your daily intellectual entertainment...

Thanks for your participation.

it might go up, if not, then it may go down.