Without more news, oil should stall here (based on charts)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTI...amp;a=225928165

IF, and its a big IF, no big news out of Libya or any other oil producing country hits the wires in coming days, oil has several reasons to stall here.

1) 9 month rising resistance line

2) 21 month rising resistance line (seriously, ya gotta take a look, seemed amazing to me how it stalled EXACTLY at both lines)

3) Oil has "respected" the 70 RSI level for the past 2 years, the track record shows the least likely thing for it to do is go up much at all

4) A $14 dollar move up from $86 to $100 in just two days means a lot of big traders are sitting on a lot of profit and are likely to take some off the table, cant imagine they would leave that much money out there with all the chart signals against a move upwards (and oil trades VERY textbook I've noticed over the years, stalls at multiples of 10's respects trendlines greatly, etc) Big boys arent gonna leave millions on the table in profit in the hopes for more bad news, they'll pull some back, maybe reposition themselves

5) Gotta figure breaking $100 was a psychological sell signal for lots of traders, it surged and stopped almost dead on at $100 today.

So, I repeat without new news, I believe there is very good likelihood that oil is posed to stall.

Works for me since I put on a horizontal spread today sold the Feb 25th USO 40's and bought the March $40's for debit of .96, I'd love to see oil stall until Friday night. However, I'm fine with rolling the weekly short leg to next week at the $41 strike which I'm prepared to do.

Thoughts?

Good post timing? We'll keep our eyes peeled.

Here's an up-to-the-previous minute chart (I believe). The source does not say 10-minute delay, and the time stamps look like they're left-justified towards the vertical axes which they likely denote. You'll have to refresh this posting page to see updates, but it will auto-update when you open it under another browser tab.

www.livecharts.co.uk

http://freeserv.duka...7&c=3214519.png

ps indicators (including volume) are available when you open the link, hover over the chart until three tabs appear in the upper right corner. Select OPTIONS, click the OSC box.

Edited by spielchekr, 23 February 2011 - 10:23 PM.

Inventory Report Tomorrow... They probably are going to ignore any bearish news though... There is usually a wide spike on volume when it is released that can be gamed... Have fun.

$120 not looking to bad pretty soon. Now that should make GDP figures a little more interesting.

stratfor on Libya

http://www.stratfor....3281e8f38037298