spx below 1300 = 1287

Twice the 1300 has held, now 1297, 1287 gap fill setsup possible 1200 test. Taking short spread. Islander

Edited by Islander, 24 February 2011 - 01:54 PM.

once the ship turns around, it keeps going in the same direction...interia!

I think the gap fill (or not) today or tomorrow will trigger another gap up and a few days of euphoria before turning back down, some 20-30 points upside maybe. The market is very oversold for ST and the next set of lows will create the divergence unless we see an even bigger drop. It is very difficult to maintain this downside momentum, 3-4 days of bounce is about to happen with the new month... Look ahead and do not overstay short here.

Thanks, you may be correct but end of month in Feb is not a big occasion on my Matrix. In any case my puts are good for a while and the inevitible is still the inevitible: the decline is due and over due technically, we are worrying about when. Islander

The action looks like "trying and trying to bounce" and it really needs a lower low for VST (like a few hours more). I agree that the seasonality for Feb is on your side for 1-2 days more. I decided to time average short for the next 5 days. If I find nice profits because the market cannot bounce over the next week, I may take them, otherwise I will accumulate for a pay out at the end of the month. There has to come a sharp bounce here, it always comes, sometimes after a bit lower first like in Feb 2007, or Jan 2010. This is a structurally a similar sell off so far... Best.

Edited by arbman, 24 February 2011 - 02:59 PM.