I need a new target, this one's met

34.15. Close enough. I think yield shall thrash about for a bit at this level as this and that sma flatline gets tested. But there's been no interest or feedback on this subject, so I'm dropping it.

$TNX 34 is test point for next week

To simultaneously test sma rollovers for 20sma, 50sma, and 200sma rollunder; To test the 50sma line; To test seven week's worth of sideways price; To test MACD & RSI divergences; To test Stoch midpoint. If not, equities will still see the same outcome, which is down. Pushing the string has brought us to a moment of recognition in the bond market next week. Equity bulldogs really (amazingly) do believe now that the world is ready for inflationary pricing. I think that at this juncture, the Fed will try to pull the choke chain on them (for their own good, of course ). Otherwise, the Fed will be seen as having lost control of the leash. Very hard to see a positive equity outcome next week, regardless of the course for bonds.

Edited by spielchekr, 24 February 2011 - 02:30 PM.

Not so. Lot's of interest, little to add to your work. Reviewing interest rate overlays right now, thanks to you. thank you. My ST on TBT is that it is completing the A of abc right now. upside target is 39.5 - 39.75; then a roll-over for the C. I think it'll be quick, and completing a correction shown on the monthly (first one since the drive north) Please keep it up.

Edited by Cedar Creek Lake Trader, 24 February 2011 - 02:33 PM.

Not so.

Lot's of interest, little to add to your work.

Reviewing interest rate overlays right now, thanks to you. thank you.

My ST on TBT is that it is completing the A of abc right now.

upside target is 39.5 - 39.75; then a roll-over for the C.

I think it'll be quick, and completing a correction shown on the monthly (first one since the drive north)

Please keep it up.

Well... alright. Soup for you! How about a little post-game analysis then?

US govt. has to keep interest rates down, or else. Sometimes, markets are not easily manipulated. That's one reason why weak, shoddy third world governments are good to have around. This latest event has stuffed yield down in the range that, if maintained for a couple of months, will assure a death cross on the yield chart by summer. Recognition of that threat ahead should begin right about now. A stabilized bond market will give equities some sense of relief for the coming months. Equities won't tear higher, but they won't crash either. Think broad, rounding top. Right JQ?

When I saw your chart posted, I loved it, and the setup. I went the next morning to buy puts. Honestly, it looked like a LOCK-and of course, it was. Unfortunately, when I went to buy the puts, the open interst on the 36 puts was 1. Along with that, a spread the size of the Grand Canyon-so I couldn't trade it-BUMMER! Keep the great stuff coming, please. Your work is much different than mine, but teaches me-and I'm always game to get better. I guess your obvious engineering backround-and my music backround makes us look at things differently. The only benefit of my early life training is that my math skills are "pretty good" -and I can and sometimes do walk into a Walmart, pick up a plastic electric guitar, and rip off arpeggios.

"This latest event has stuffed yield down in the range that, if maintained for a couple of months, will assure a death cross on the yield chart by summer. Recognition of that threat ahead should begin right about now. A stabilized bond market will give equities some sense of relief for the coming months. Equities won't tear higher, but they won't crash either. Think broad, rounding top. " LT/"Strategic Thinking", I absolutely agree with you. From a more tactical viewpoint, rates (TBT) have pulled back to a level that has multiple lines of support in multiple time frames. A bounce of some order is in order; the size will be dependent on how quickly this current debacle is resolved. And in today's world, these resolutions seem to come pretty quickly. Business, after all, is still business. For TBT, the action on the upcoming bounce will say what it says. My guess is that if the daily 20 sma is reclaimed on a closing basis, this sell-off is over. If, however, the 50 sma fails a retest, I think there's another wave or two down.

TS1: "I guess your obvious engineering backround-and my music backround makes us look at things differently." Ah yes, music. Fractional math and chart reading. Theory and practice. Rhythm and harmonic structure. Counterpoint and parallel symmetry. Dynamics and balance. Consonance and dissonance. Thematic recurrence and development. The list goes on but, above all, timing of execution. Maybe not as much difference as you think. CCL: I believe you're right, and I'll be glad I didn't round the target to the tens instead of the ones.

Edited by spielchekr, 24 February 2011 - 07:52 PM.

I almost forgot. "Unfortunately, when I went to buy the puts, the open interst on the 36 puts was 1. Along with that, a spread the size of the Grand Canyon-so I couldn't trade it-BUMMER!" Maybe because it was just meant to be.

Thanks for posts, spielchekr. Keep 'em coming.