Advisory Scorch Warning

This short pile up over the past 2 days is just an explosive fuel waiting for a spark, imho. I think this bear fuel came at the end of the decline and it is an indication of a new driven capitulation. We will probably see lower next week in terms of bottoming as I still think it is an uptrend a bit further, but we should see at least a short term bottom around these prices. We should rally full day tomorrow and expire the massive put purchases worthless, and I mean it is a lot. Then continue probably a bit lower to put in that divergent bottom. The breadth is doing better today, but more puts are purchased than yesterday. The breadth is better, but still oversold and actually the prices are even more oversold... Best of luck.

I believe that was said (on CNBC this morning) to be the cause of the rally in Japan, short covering.

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So are you loading up here Scorchman? Or already have a tank?

This short pile up over the past 2 days is just an explosive fuel waiting for a spark, imho. I think this bear fuel came at the end of the decline and it is an indication of a new driven capitulation. We will probably see lower next week in terms of bottoming as I still think it is an uptrend a bit further, but we should see at least a short term bottom around these prices. We should rally full day tomorrow and expire the massive put purchases worthless, and I mean it is a lot. Then continue probably a bit lower to put in that divergent bottom. The breadth is doing better today, but more puts are purchased than yesterday. The breadth is better, but still oversold and actually the prices are even more oversold... Best of luck.

Scorchy scorchy off the porchy!

This short pile up over the past 2 days is just an explosive fuel waiting for a spark, imho. I think this bear fuel came at the end of the decline and it is an indication of a new driven capitulation. We will probably see lower next week in terms of bottoming as I still think it is an uptrend a bit further, but we should see at least a short term bottom around these prices. We should rally full day tomorrow and expire the massive put purchases worthless, and I mean it is a lot. Then continue probably a bit lower to put in that divergent bottom. The breadth is doing better today, but more puts are purchased than yesterday. The breadth is better, but still oversold and actually the prices are even more oversold... Best of luck.

no divergences in breadth or price comin today. ST oversold is all. Even if we are about to turn, they will take out yesterdays low first to shake the tree.

Edited by tommyt, 16 March 2011 - 12:20 PM.

I am very slowly accumulating today for a trade since ES June drops below 1260... Perhaps down to 1240s... For me it is all about the average price. I think the average price over the next 2 days will be lower than, say, early next week... But I think a rally may come earlier...

I believe that was said (on CNBC this morning) to be the cause of the rally in Japan, short covering.

This is concerning. The longer term trends are surely rolling over now, but I am trading the US stocks and there is an expiration in 2 days.

I still expect a rogue wave up into April, perhaps 1330s or beyond...

no divergences in breadth or price comin today

Yesterday A-D = -2000, today A-D = -1100, among the most active (about 3000 common stock) issues I am watching (both NYSE and Nasdaq). The index prices are lower than yesterday's close so far.

Edited by arbman, 16 March 2011 - 12:34 PM.

The shorts must be piling into Russell 2K issues....it's trouncing SPX on a relatively basis this week

This short pile up over the past 2 days is just an explosive fuel waiting for a spark, imho. I think this bear fuel came at the end of the decline and it is an indication of a new driven capitulation. We will probably see lower next week in terms of bottoming as I still think it is an uptrend a bit further, but we should see at least a short term bottom around these prices. We should rally full day tomorrow and expire the massive put purchases worthless, and I mean it is a lot. Then continue probably a bit lower to put in that divergent bottom. The breadth is doing better today, but more puts are purchased than yesterday. The breadth is better, but still oversold and actually the prices are even more oversold... Best of luck.

I'd like to see a lower low close today first, but I'm not sure the boys will allow this.

Here's my expiration scorch watch chart...I give it low odds, unless we get some very positive developments in Japan....

I still think 1240s will provide a decent bounce, lowest tick could be 1238 perhaps, just a channel line. The prices are very stretched, unless crashing...