down channel broke

Wave 3 of c up of 4 may be at hand... measured target remains 1300.

Wave 3 of c up of 4 may be at hand... measured target remains 1300.

Yes i agree dont get too shorty here wait a while patient pays....I think 1306.5/-1308 could be seen.

Bye bye index puts!!! The opening leadership better be different than today's closing, or a crap would be the natural outcome... It is still the same scorch advisory warning!!! Don't you love the expirations? I would not sell short yet either, but it is getting closer...

Edited by arbman, 17 March 2011 - 08:15 PM.

Bye bye index puts!!! The opening leadership better be different than today's closing, or a crap would be the natural outcome... It is still the same scorch advisory warning!!! Don't you love the expirations? I would not sell short yet either, but it is getting closer...

Arb, any ideas on the chances of this being a fake out to the upside?

Orange, I "try" not to trade the news, the news was screaming short day after day during this very dangerous expiration week... Look what happened once I issued that scorch advisory warning! Trade the prices, not the news... People are emotional here, but the central banks are too! I still believe we will have a fairly violent and irrational upside to come from here, but let it create the divergence over the next 2 weeks and I think it is back to the slow roll over into spring. In 2010, the market managed to rally after they announced such plans and then rolled over one more time, but we didn't have POMOs back then. How does it happen? How can it happen the same every time to the poor bears? I don't know, but the bulls will be back with vengeance with the CBs behind their back... The problem is we are already building a worldwide CB debt bubble, can they keep doing this in the second half of 2011?!? What if we get also another disaster in the west coast of US, they are using all resources possible and quite recklessly, so when we get hit with the next disaster, we will be really out of money and I bet it won't be a natural disaster that will take the market down, but the imploding debt bubble.

Edited by arbman, 17 March 2011 - 09:58 PM.

" any ideas on the chances of this being a fake out to the upside? I doubt highly you break 1287, after which 1234 is the next real stop. I'd give about a 90% probability you see 1234 before you see 1300. And, to get even more precise-I bet you see sub 1200 before you see 1300.

" any ideas on the chances of this being a fake out to the upside?

I doubt highly you break 1287, after which 1234 is the next real stop. I'd give about a 90% probability you see 1234 before you see 1300. And, to get even more precise-I bet you see sub 1200 before you see 1300.

Are you talking ES june or SPX? It makes a difference.

SPX will probably open right at the resistance @ SPX=1287, the shorts will pile up, then it will scorch again until the close.

SPX will probably open right at the resistance @ SPX=1287, the shorts will pile up, then it will scorch again until the close.

I am thinking it will open around 1300 and squirt up a bit, then collapse as bears hit it or people take profits.. only to bounce into the close again.

Open around SPX 1300.. squirt to 1305, collapse to 1290, close around 1300.

Open around SPX 1300.. squirt to 1305, collapse to 1290, close around 1300.

Not going to happen... 1290 is even a stretch.